Posted by: Captain Haddock May 8, 2007
India : Economic Explosion?
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Balbhadra - Phew! At least it is in quotes this time :) Thopa - Sure politicians and economists have a role in it all, but so does everyone else including businesses and ordinary people. I think that's where you will see the initiative and the action IMHO. Loots - Very interesting. I guess having a better agricutural growth rate plays its part but I dont see it as the primary driver in brining people out of poverty. If you look at most major economic advances post the industrial revolution, including what is going on in China today, a lot of upward mobility has been about bringing people out of lower paying agricultural sector into the relatively higher paying manufacturing, construction and the services sectors. Also, that 90% agriculture employment number has declined in the decades since it was that high. The numbers I have before me are more on the lines of 60% employement in agriculture (with roughly 30 % in services and 10% in industry - not sure which bucket they put construction in). In spite of employment being skewed such, in terms of GDP services are a staggering 60% and agriculture and industry 20% each. In light of that, the game plan should be, and I think is in the mind of many planners, to increase the opportunities for people so that they can move to the higher paying sectors like services, construction and manufacuring. That is not to say agriculture can or should be ignored but agricultural growth is unlikely to be what lifts millions out of poverty. The focus in my opinion should be to wean as many people away from agriculture as possible by providing them the opportunities and acces that will help them succeed in the other sectors (namely education). It wasn't agriculture that has brought India this far, except perhaps for a brief period during the green revolution days, and it appears it will continue to be the services and industry sectors that will drive the economy forward.That is where the future of India's masses lies IMHO.
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