Posted by: Captain Haddock May 7, 2007
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Thought this might be of interest to some. Remember when the Indians were talking about a population explosion? :)
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Source
- http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9135582&top_story=1
India's consumers
The coming boom
May 3rd 2007 | DELHI
From The Economist print edition
India's consumption could leapfrog Germany's in two decades
IN CASE any potential investor has missed India's run of 8% growth and billion-person potential, the consultants at McKinsey have provided a useful jab in the ribs. In a report on India's consumer market published on May 3rd, they have added detail to the probable economic explosion ahead. Assuming annual growth averages 7.3% over two decades—a reasonable bet—India may overtake Germany as the world's fifth-biggest consumer market by 2025. It predicts the middle class will expand from 50m to 583m, leaving only a fifth of Indians in the bottom household-income bracket, earning less than 90,000 rupees ($2,200) a year (see chart).
All sorts of businesses will profit. But the report, “The Bird of Gold: the Rise of India's Consumer Market”, suggests where the opportunities will be greatest. First, among the relatively rich. For now, the poor and lower-middle class together account for 75% of total spending. By 2025, McKinsey predicts consumption will be dominated by the middle class, to the tune of 59%, and the rich, accounting for 20%. Second, in the cities. It expects consumption in urban areas to rise from 43% of the total now to 62% by 2025—even though most Indians will still be rural.
Third, as spending on discretionary items increases, some markets will balloon faster than others. While the share of Indians' spending devoted to food, drink and tobacco will fall from 42% to 25% by 2025, health-care spending will rise from 4% to 13%.
If McKinsey's growth prediction looks reasonable, others look optimistic. For example, the report notes that spending on education and infrastructure will have to increase to support its analysis. Yet it is still hard to imagine so many hundreds of millions of Indians being educated to a standard befitting middle-income status. Transforming the thousands of rotten schools might prove impossible, even if sufficient money can be found. Given India's relatively weak fiscal position, it perhaps cannot be.
If the golden bird is to be a phoenix, and not a chicken, predictions such as these should spur the government to act on such problems. Suman Bery, director of the National Council of Applied Economic Research, a think-tank, lends a word of caution: “We've had super-fast growth only for the last four years. We can still throw it away.”
IN CASE any potential investor has missed India's run of 8% growth and billion-person potential, the consultants at McKinsey have provided a useful jab in the ribs. In a report on India's consumer market published on May 3rd, they have added detail to the probable economic explosion ahead. Assuming annual growth averages 7.3% over two decades—a reasonable bet—India may overtake Germany as the world's fifth-biggest consumer market by 2025. It predicts the middle class will expand from 50m to 583m, leaving only a fifth of Indians in the bottom household-income bracket, earning less than 90,000 rupees ($2,200) a year (see chart).
All sorts of businesses will profit. But the report, “The Bird of Gold: the Rise of India's Consumer Market”, suggests where the opportunities will be greatest. First, among the relatively rich. For now, the poor and lower-middle class together account for 75% of total spending. By 2025, McKinsey predicts consumption will be dominated by the middle class, to the tune of 59%, and the rich, accounting for 20%. Second, in the cities. It expects consumption in urban areas to rise from 43% of the total now to 62% by 2025—even though most Indians will still be rural.
Third, as spending on discretionary items increases, some markets will balloon faster than others. While the share of Indians' spending devoted to food, drink and tobacco will fall from 42% to 25% by 2025, health-care spending will rise from 4% to 13%.
If McKinsey's growth prediction looks reasonable, others look optimistic. For example, the report notes that spending on education and infrastructure will have to increase to support its analysis. Yet it is still hard to imagine so many hundreds of millions of Indians being educated to a standard befitting middle-income status. Transforming the thousands of rotten schools might prove impossible, even if sufficient money can be found. Given India's relatively weak fiscal position, it perhaps cannot be.
If the golden bird is to be a phoenix, and not a chicken, predictions such as these should spur the government to act on such problems. Suman Bery, director of the National Council of Applied Economic Research, a think-tank, lends a word of caution: “We've had super-fast growth only for the last four years. We can still throw it away.”