Posted by: Riten November 10, 2004
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Here's a snippet from the article "The bothersome little people next door" in the latest issue of ECONOMIST that might be of interest to many of us. Also available online at www.economist.com, click on the link "India's awkward neighbours".
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The closest to a failed state is Nepal, whose King Gyanendra is due in Delhi in late November. After a bloody eight-year insurgency, Maoist guerrillas are in control of 68 of Nepal's 75 districts. The police force has now withdrawn from almost the entire countryside. Only about 100 out of 1,135 police stations are functioning.
Indian diplomats say that a Maoist takeover of Nepal would be the worst possible outcome for India. But they have little idea how to prevent it. The non-Maoist forces remain divided, despite a semblance of multi-party government. The king controls the army, which India has been helping with military and intelligence support. But this may encourage him to believe in the possibility of a military victory, which most analysts think is now beyond reach, and delay the search for a political settlement until it is too late.
Gloomier forecasters, such as Ajai Sahni, of the Institute for Conflict Management, a Delhi think-tank, fear that if the Maoists do agree to talk peace, it will be merely to discuss the terms of the government's surrender. This may not be imminent, but causes particular concern because of India's own spreading Maoist problem. The two largest of 20-odd Indian Maoist, or ?Naxalite?, insurgent groups, the People's War Group and the Maoist Communist Centre, merged last month. Although they entered talks with the government of one state, Andhra Pradesh, they refused to disarm, and low-level violence has continued elsewhere.
Of India's 593 districts, 157 are now affected in some measure by Naxalism?102 of them have been added to the list in the past year. India says that they have strong links with their Nepali counterparts. More important than any practical support, however, would be the ideological encouragement of a Maoist victory in Nepal.