Posted by: Lokman October 30, 2004
Login in to Rate this Post:
0
?


First off, I am just a layman but I beg to differ with IF's views, not in its entirety but more on the essence of it; which I *think*, if I am not mistaken, is that the US has the best intentions for China.
First of all, I doubt America would be very pleased to see its supremacy and global influence challenged from any quarters, least of all from China. Unless both the countries have been putting on an act, everyone knows that China and the US are not the best of friends. They don't see eye to eye on a number of issues. Infact, America would not be too fond of Europe stepping on its toes, much less a "communist China".
I think it's fair to say that China and America are both suspicious of one another. That is also the reason why American millitary radar has shifted its focus from Europe to Asia-Pacific in recent years, now that the other superpower (read it USSR) has been dislodged from the pedestral.
IF wrote "America wants a strong China. Any instability in China will greatly affect the whole world".
Yes, I agree with your statement but only partly. What America essentially wants is a China that is strong enough to function but not strong enough to challenge America's superemacy, because, like you said, an instable/chaotic China is a threat to peace and prosperity for Asia-Pacific and therefore the world at large. You see, there is a demarcation.
As far as the issue of Taiwan goes, America is not very keen about the idea of Taiwan uniting with the mainland china. It wants the staus quo to remain (and hence its ambiguous stance), because it has been a lucrative bargaining chip for the US when dealing with China. America can always play up the two sides to its advantage.
As far as Powell's comments are concerned, you know, at the start of Bush's presidency he promised to do 'whatever it takes' to defend Taiwan should a war break between the two sides, which I think has now come to haunt the Bush administration, because there is a sense that pro-independent forces in Taiwan are gaining upper hand and are getting ever more bolder as indicated by Chen's intention to hold referendum etc. Recently, the prime-minister of Sigapore said he was alarmed by pro-independent forces' growing influence in Taiwan. He said there was a real chance of a war breaking out and that should that happen Singapore would not take sides and most Asian countries would stay neutral as well. The reality seems to have sunk in now, so basically Powell is trying put a damper on that over-enthusiastic pro-indepent forces in Taiwan. Also, Singapore and Australia, considered among America's closest allies in Asia, are forever imploring Washington to tread carefully when dealing with China.
Would the US ever go to war with China over Taiwan? My guess is only as good as yours.
I think a number of factors would contribute as to whether or not America would in for a millitary showdown with China. I am sure both US and China have very little apetite for a war that will benefit neither. The stakes are unbelievely high(i can's stress this enough) for both the parties. However, the chances of war between US and China over Taiwan would grow slimmer in the years ahead.