Posted by: SAP Dude November 21, 2013
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Why did Mao won last time.
People were tired of UML, Congress, King and also were tired of Mao ongoing war.
They wanted to bring the fighters to power so that they could test the new the party and avoid,uml, king, and congress.
More than that people wanted to bring the fighters to power so that they have no one to wage war against.
Why did Mao lost this time
The biggest problem i thik is that the original Mao voters, the poors (sarvahaara) as they like to call it refused to vote again because their life was not changed at all while they saw the leaders roaming in chopper/pajero and living in mansons.
Mao was under impression that many of their former voters were their loyal voters, they were just Communist Sympathizers who happened to vote for Mao back then and now they have switched back to other communist party.
Mao was under impression that Janajaati agenda would get them the vote needed for 2/3rd win. Wrong again. The result implies that Janajaati do not care about Janajaati agenda. Many janajaati winning from uml, congress, and even RPP.
May be the split of the party had little to do with it especially in the areas where big shots were candidates. Baidhe may have directed his people to vote the candidate who has more possibility to defeat the Mao candidate.
Conclusion
It looks like in Nepal, there are fixed amount of Congress voters, these do not vote outside of their party but there is a huge float of communist swing voters. Out of 60% - 65% communists in nepal may be 40% are loyal voters but the remaining 25% are swing voters. These swing voters keep on looking for better options. These voters make the difference. These voters vote anywhere from Congress to the right to RPP to the left and beyond.
We should refrain calling nepal as Bheda as they seem to make a logica decision. It was logical for them to try Mao last time and it is logical for them to not vote this time.
This defeat is definitely a huge blow to Prachanda and his ego. Now they have no choice to go back and say sorry to Baidhe as he seems to be the winner among them two right now. Prachanda and his son will go down like Gyanendra/paras and Girija/Sujata combo.
People were tired of UML, Congress, King and also were tired of Mao ongoing war.
They wanted to bring the fighters to power so that they could test the new the party and avoid,uml, king, and congress.
More than that people wanted to bring the fighters to power so that they have no one to wage war against.
Why did Mao lost this time
The biggest problem i thik is that the original Mao voters, the poors (sarvahaara) as they like to call it refused to vote again because their life was not changed at all while they saw the leaders roaming in chopper/pajero and living in mansons.
Mao was under impression that many of their former voters were their loyal voters, they were just Communist Sympathizers who happened to vote for Mao back then and now they have switched back to other communist party.
Mao was under impression that Janajaati agenda would get them the vote needed for 2/3rd win. Wrong again. The result implies that Janajaati do not care about Janajaati agenda. Many janajaati winning from uml, congress, and even RPP.
May be the split of the party had little to do with it especially in the areas where big shots were candidates. Baidhe may have directed his people to vote the candidate who has more possibility to defeat the Mao candidate.
Conclusion
It looks like in Nepal, there are fixed amount of Congress voters, these do not vote outside of their party but there is a huge float of communist swing voters. Out of 60% - 65% communists in nepal may be 40% are loyal voters but the remaining 25% are swing voters. These swing voters keep on looking for better options. These voters make the difference. These voters vote anywhere from Congress to the right to RPP to the left and beyond.
We should refrain calling nepal as Bheda as they seem to make a logica decision. It was logical for them to try Mao last time and it is logical for them to not vote this time.
This defeat is definitely a huge blow to Prachanda and his ego. Now they have no choice to go back and say sorry to Baidhe as he seems to be the winner among them two right now. Prachanda and his son will go down like Gyanendra/paras and Girija/Sujata combo.