Posted by: Kiddo September 9, 2013
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Rahulvai ko pahilo ra antim para sarai ramro lagyo. But, I am not sure about the second one, specifically the last line of second para.
Yes, a goalie has to setup his mind before the kick. But a lot of factors go into this and every single goalie will have a different strategy. If they all followed the 9 out of 10 rule then the tie-breakers will be too predictable (game theory application perhaps?).
The chances of Afgani goalie diving in the same corner was as much as him diving in the other (or in the middle). From probabilistic standpoint, a study done by the Freakonomics co-authors Steven Levitt and Dubner, showed that both kickers and keepers prefer to go to their left but the difference is not too high. It sure doesn't say which direction the goalie goes once he has already gone one direction; but it does say kicking to the right had the lowest pay-off of any direction.
Now as for the strategy, a goalie going in the same direction in consecutive kicks is, at-best, a myth. Yes, the goalie has to pre-determine his side before the kick is made but his bias towards one side is very much dependent upon the strategy and goalie's personal decision.
Bottom line is, if a goal was scored, we wouldn't be talking about his decision. The Freakonomics article also talks about why kickers don't chose to go middle. While there is a big pay-off, the embarassment of being blocked in the middle is graver. This embarassment comes from the unreasonable expectation for kicker to hit at the corner; much like an unreasonable expectation for kicker not to shoot at the same direction twice in a row. I probably would've kicked the ball in a different direction, but I don't blame the kid.
Yes, a goalie has to setup his mind before the kick. But a lot of factors go into this and every single goalie will have a different strategy. If they all followed the 9 out of 10 rule then the tie-breakers will be too predictable (game theory application perhaps?).
The chances of Afgani goalie diving in the same corner was as much as him diving in the other (or in the middle). From probabilistic standpoint, a study done by the Freakonomics co-authors Steven Levitt and Dubner, showed that both kickers and keepers prefer to go to their left but the difference is not too high. It sure doesn't say which direction the goalie goes once he has already gone one direction; but it does say kicking to the right had the lowest pay-off of any direction.
Now as for the strategy, a goalie going in the same direction in consecutive kicks is, at-best, a myth. Yes, the goalie has to pre-determine his side before the kick is made but his bias towards one side is very much dependent upon the strategy and goalie's personal decision.
Bottom line is, if a goal was scored, we wouldn't be talking about his decision. The Freakonomics article also talks about why kickers don't chose to go middle. While there is a big pay-off, the embarassment of being blocked in the middle is graver. This embarassment comes from the unreasonable expectation for kicker to hit at the corner; much like an unreasonable expectation for kicker not to shoot at the same direction twice in a row. I probably would've kicked the ball in a different direction, but I don't blame the kid.