Posted by: hakim_saab October 14, 2012
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This is my take on this whole thing.
1) Maoist movement was on the cards since the 80's, but didn't solidify due to strict outlawing of political parties.
2) With the advent of multiparty democracy, political organization becomes easier and seeds for the war are sown. Prachanda picks Rolpa and Rukum since the people there are easier to fool, but martial. Plus Kathmandu doesn't care about the far-west.
3) The experimental war kicks off and spreads faster than expected. Maoists know that the deep respect for Birendra and Dipendra among the people means that they'll never support an overthrow of the Monarchy. Birendra needs to be eliminated.
4) The Maoists join forces with Gyanendra and wipe off Birendra's lineage. The Maoists dangle a carrot that would make Gyanendra King and with his help Maoists would come to power and outlaw all the other parties in Nepal and hence rule until eternity. Only the top Maoists and Gyanendra are in on this agreement, hence the fighting goes on even after Gyanendra is King. There are numerous ceasefires announced however.
5) In true Macchalevian fashion, now the Maoists also begin negotiating with the political parties. As the Maoists become more and more vicious, public support for them falls, hence they need to forge alliances with both the King and the parties. In the end they will side with whoever helps them get into power.
5) India doesn't arrest their leaders because their leadership is a possible ally of the palace as well as Girija and Co.
6) In the end the side with the parties because people want the war to end and see Gyanendra as the obstacle.
5)
1) Maoist movement was on the cards since the 80's, but didn't solidify due to strict outlawing of political parties.
2) With the advent of multiparty democracy, political organization becomes easier and seeds for the war are sown. Prachanda picks Rolpa and Rukum since the people there are easier to fool, but martial. Plus Kathmandu doesn't care about the far-west.
3) The experimental war kicks off and spreads faster than expected. Maoists know that the deep respect for Birendra and Dipendra among the people means that they'll never support an overthrow of the Monarchy. Birendra needs to be eliminated.
4) The Maoists join forces with Gyanendra and wipe off Birendra's lineage. The Maoists dangle a carrot that would make Gyanendra King and with his help Maoists would come to power and outlaw all the other parties in Nepal and hence rule until eternity. Only the top Maoists and Gyanendra are in on this agreement, hence the fighting goes on even after Gyanendra is King. There are numerous ceasefires announced however.
5) In true Macchalevian fashion, now the Maoists also begin negotiating with the political parties. As the Maoists become more and more vicious, public support for them falls, hence they need to forge alliances with both the King and the parties. In the end they will side with whoever helps them get into power.
5) India doesn't arrest their leaders because their leadership is a possible ally of the palace as well as Girija and Co.
6) In the end the side with the parties because people want the war to end and see Gyanendra as the obstacle.
5)