Kathmandu valley residents felt tremors from an earthquake that had epicenter 272 kms to the east in Sikkim. The epicenter, Sikkim, felt an earthquake of 6.8 richter scale on September 18, 2011 at 6:10 PM (local time). More details on the earthquake from USGS can be found here. (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0005wg6.html#details).” At least three people were killed in Kathmandu when a British Embassy wall collapsed due to the earthquake and another two from a separate incident in eastern Nepal,” according to Binod Singh, National Police spokesman (source: AFP).

Even though Kathmandu may have escaped a major disaster, everyone is questioning how prepared the valley residents are for a major earthquake. We have heard about “nabbay saal ko bhukhampa” but not many young people have lived through such a major disaster.  There have been projects like “Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Preparedness Initiative”  (http://www.nset.org.np/nset/html/IK2011/14_kvepi.pdf) but still not many Kathmandu residents have been educated on exactly what to do when the walls start to shake and ceiling fans start to swing back and forth. Are we supposed to run out? Are we supposed to sit under a table? Stand under a door? Following the link in “what to do during an earthquake?” page in http://www.earthquake-nepal.com/ lands you in FEMA of USA page that says “If indoors” drop to the ground; take cover by getting under a sturdy table and hold on.” But these were written for earthquakes in the US. Kathmandu valley with different building standards may need different sets of directions. On this front, Nepal locked in political turmoil, hasn’t been able to muster up policies that would otherwise educate valley residents in masses. The recent event, 13th annual National Earthquake Safety day, which took place on January 16, 2011, to educate valley residents about earthquake showed how little are we prepared.

Kathmandu valley residents may have lucked out that the epicenter was more than 200 kms away and no major damages occurred but residents should remind themselves of the potential of major earthquake in Nepal anytime. The last 1934 earthquake of 8.4 richter scale killed thousands of valley residents. Similar earthquake in Kathmandu today can have devastating effects with housing and apartment complexes with questionable building standards. The story titled “The 20 Most Earthquake-Vulnerable Cities” by Forbes, published in 2010, lists Kathmandu on the number 1 spot with a  predicted casualty of 69000 with a 6.0 earthquake (http://www.forbes.com/2007/12/04/earthquakes-india-japan-biz-cx_db_1203earthquakes_slide_2.html?thisSpeed=undefined). This was prediction made in 2010 with estimated population of 1 million. We know Kathmandu is home for a lot more than 1 million people today, so the predicted casualties could be much higher.

Similarly, the New York Times interactive (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/02/24/world/20100224-quake-map.html, picture shown above as well) paints a very gloomy picture for potential earthquake in Nepal.  They took the opinions of seismologists on the chance of earthquake in next 40 years in major cities and its intensity. The colors in the picture shown below (source: New York Times) show potential earthquakes and its impact with color coded into 4 categories “Strong, Very Strong, Destructive and Catastrophic.” We can see in the picture, there are only 3 cities in the world  that are categorized in “Catastrophic” and unfortunately Kathmandu is one of them.

We have seen in the last decade that Kathmandu has been repeatedly put in the list of one of the most vulnerable cities for catastrophic earthquakes but Kathmandu Valley residents still seems to be ill prepared for any major earthquake besides making the topic one time serious guff during momo parties. The buildings that have gone up without proper building codes that virtually stand against each other with streets that are 12 feet wide could make escapes and relief impossible. In the  process of real east horde we may have failed to realize that aspirations of owning high rise apartments in Kathmandu may come in the prices of blood when earthquake comes rumbling from underneath the great city of Kathmandu. Are we ready?

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