Guys,

Many of you wrote very interesting articles to Rappleye's article. In many ways, I think that your response was more interesting than the article he wrote:
http://www.sajha.com/sajha/html/OpenThread.cfm?forum=2&ThreadID=87228

I wanted to see what are all the different ways that our Nepali story could play out. Moving into the future, what are the worst case scenarios about how our Nepali story could play out? Here are some scenarios that I see:

Scenario 1. We descend into more chaos, the Army has enough and has a coup--Pakistani style. Nepal turns into a military regime resembling Burma. A ruthless dictator goes on a killing spree, wiping out political opponents. Political parties go underground. Basically, we go into the scenario of Mahendra abolishing all political parties and being the defacto power in the nation. Except instead of a king we have a military dictator.

Scenario 2.  We descend into more chaos, and thuggery is the only way to survive in nepal. The army is too weak, the country is divided by warlords into small hovels. We turn into Somalia. Basically, Nepal descends back to the pre-Prithivi Narayan Shah years into being split into small kingdoms ruled by bickering war lords (previously known as Kings)

Scenario 3. We descend into more chaos. And India decides that our poor conduct is negatively encouraging the Leftists/Maoists within India (which many Indian intellectuals today see as the biggest threat to India currently). India feels that Nepal's chaos is negatively affecting life in in India to the point that 'someone' needs to do something. India turns to the international community for consultation on the 'Nepal matter.' The international community shrugs and feels Nepal is a hopeless case. India feels that it has no other option but to take over Nepal because no one else in the international community really wants to do anything about the issue. India feels that Nepal's internal insecurity is giving the wrong message to the radicals within India.
In other words, is it really impossible for Nepal to be painted like Afghanistan so that it can be invaded and "reformed" like how the U.S made the case to invade Afghanistan because under the Taliban Afghanistan was not only abusive to it's people but also a breeding ground for troube makers?

Scenario 4. Nepal continues the way it is where a weak embarrasing political theatre continues to dominate the National scene of governments coming into power that cannot sustain itself and have the confidence of the people. The people's response to this is to not depend on the political process but to instead survive, somehow, and carve out a life amdist the chaos...saying "Ke garne? Yestai ho." More Nepalese leave the nation to go survive in other countries. Nepal is seen as filled with Nepalese who weren't clever enough to get out in time. Because of the political instability, very few people feel that it is possible to have a good quality life living there. Tourists do not want to go to Nepal anymore. Real estate and land prices go down, etc.

Any other scenarios you guys can think of?