Posted by: fortunefaded May 6, 2009
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Regarding the picks this week, I held onto CX and FEED. I think CX will face resistance at 11.40 and that's when I plan to sell it. Considering that I bought it at 8.10, I am more than happy to take the 40% profit :). Regarding FEED I am looking closely at the 4.40 resistance level.  It broke through it today but closed lower. If it does break and close above 4.40, I plan to hold on to this stock for some time. But stop loss will be at 4.40.

Now, on some dire prediction...
Like Emini said it boggles my mind how this market is going up every week. I decided to look into the SPY and looking at history I am still pessimistic about this rally. If this rally ends up being the real deal then I am wrong, but I still want to play the devil's advocate for now.
I think SPY will hit 100-102 before we see another major dumping.

Ok,
Here is a bit of History as to why:
 The first chart below is of the monthly SPY. I am looking at the current rally and comparing it to the 2001-2003 bear market.





Going back into history, lets look at the Fibonacci retracement of the 2001 bear market. I am looking at the pivot point at mid-2001 and the high at 2000. Look on your left and what do you notice? The market rallied up to the 38.2 retracement level in the rally before selling off sharply to make new lows.



Now, lets look at the current rally. If you thought the March low was the bottom, think again.
The fib is drawn from the october 2007 high to the march 2009 low. And similar to 2001 bear rally, we are approaching 38.2 retracement level. This happens to be around nice little number that is 100. It is actually close to 101.5. If history were to repeat itself, then I expect a huge pullback from that point. Until then, let the bulls have the bite!



Regards,
FF

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