Posted by: Samsara July 28, 2008
US Economy: A Downward Spiral?
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u_day, and thats how efficient markets operate...Any sign of blood and we have a shark feeding frenzy where the corp in distress is shredded to a single bite size propotion.

Loote, thanks for showing up here...Your post here has undeniably attracted more hits to my thread.  US$1 = NPR 10?  LOLs  I don't think I'd ever see that day in my lifetime, but for INR to reach 10 against the US$ doesn't seem like a distant faded reality anymore though (don't know if NPR would still be able to keep the 1.6 peg with INR as in terms of basic economics, there is no way we culd still hold that peg rate with the boom in India's economic indicators compared to our stagnant Nepali economy).  If someone were to ask me, I'd say that the whole mess began with the subprime issues and it will end with that.  Once all banks come outta the closet and reveal their real mess, only then can any viable solution be found.  So far, the Fed and the Congress have been applying a band-aid to a cancerous patch and that my friend, is defn not going to work.  Also, the War situation (if the War in Iraq is seen to be prolonged or if we decide to venture into Iran) would defn kill any hopes for an economic revival. 

VG, good call on not buying Wamu shares at $11...If you had, then you'd be weeping in some corner in a fetal position after reading the above article for sure. 

Beltran, as long as the suprime mess is still not over, Financials would keep getting hammered.  The only jobs secure right now are the stock-brokers within IBs.  These cats are mostly paid no or very little salary as a majority of their compensation comes outta the commissions they generate (so its cheaper for the IBs to still have them around and continue raking in their commisions).  Any performance based position will be around for long.  And for the NYC real estate, this will not go down anytime soon.  For the past 2 yrs, real estate nationwide has dropped an average of 20% or more whereas in NYC, it has been down about 4% only.  Why?  Because of the immigrants, tourists and out-of towners who have been driving up the local real estate unlike other parts of the US.  The NY Times had an article last month about how NY Realtys have now begun pricing their properties in terms of Euros and how these Europeans and Brtis (with their new-found excahnge rate wealth) are buying these bargain basement deals in terms of Manhattan prices.  If I were you, I'd go and start my process on buying a condo right now...Remember, its a buyer's market now, so make sure YOU set the terms (financing, etc) and get the sellers to throw in some incentives with the property.

Hyde, a Romney-McCain tkt would be the best bet for the Republicans at this hour.  The economy needs a financial guru and prolly someone in the top brass to have hailed outta Investment Banks (Romney) as the current economic doomsday scenario can be curbed once someone with a deeper understanding into the workings of an IB (its risks, rewards, new-derivative products, etc).  Romney would be well suited for that and McCain should be wise enuff to know that.

BA, you're welcome...I'd be glad to post more grim news anytime it comes along...No wonder they call Economics the "Dismal Science." 

ll  ll, the fall would be brought about the next administration only if these new leaders go on to prolong the current Afganistan and Iraqi occupation.  And moreover, make it a point that all the banks involved in the sub-prime mess come out clean instead of hoodwinking the markets into believing that they are still riding high. 

Bhaley bro, good to see you.  Where have you been these days?  Yeah, exactly, thats the scary part.  America sneezes and the rest of the world catches a cold.  Thats how it still is thanks to the dominance of the green-backs ever since the Bretton Woods treaty.  A monopoly of sorts but who has the balls to complain (we'd bomb their azzes back to the stone ages if they dared do that). 

 

Finally, was watching CNBC last week and when Erin Burnett (damn, she's hot as hell) asked one strategist outta UBS as to what he expected the Financial stocks to do, a perfect answer from this idiot: "...I'd buy on the dips and sell on the pops."  HAHAH  How on earth would someone know where the dips end and where the pops reaches its resistance?  HAHHAHA  Vague to the highest degree AND that my friends, is what the markets is right now: Vague and blurred.  Defn, some people are making money trading but overall, I'd advise anyone still long on the Banking Sector to grab your boots and run.  As per the article above, "The recent Fed- and SEC-inspired rally was a gift — a last chance to get out at somewhat better prices."

 

Last edited: 28-Jul-08 01:15 PM
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