Posted by: twelveangry May 14, 2008
IS DOLLAR GOING UP AGAIN?
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i agree with what texas said but there are few other points...

Going by what Ben Bernanke had to said after the last Fed meetings, the fed is done with lowering the fed funds rate for now...so it seems from the interest rate side dollar slide might be over ...this is also justified by the fact that during the last few weeks dollar has gained against Euro and Yen..

However one of the prime concerns in India right now is Inflation. With elections nearby, the Indian Finance Minister has reiterated his commitment to tackle inflation, which implies that interest rate in India will probably continue to increase....cetreus paribus, this will cause INR to appreciate against dollar...

Overall, textbook economics model says that US dollar still has to go down because of huge trade deficit that US runs against its major trading parterns...however this argument has been proven wrong in the early 2000's because of the so called "global savings glut"  - i.e. people from all over the world were investing in US treasury because US treasury bonds are the most safe investments. Recently there has been talks of countries, predominatry China and other oil countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia diversifying their dollar assets...this might affect future course of dollar..

 

 

 

 

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