Posted by: rohitgrg April 14, 2008
Top 10things Maoists will do in the aftermath of CAE
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Captain, after the election results chances are highly unlikely that the palace or army will  attempt a coup. There are rumors that Katuwal will resign soon but this is just a rumor. Nevertheless, the palace and the royalists are completely demoralized by the election result. They don't fancy a coup even in their wildest dream. Gyanendra should be happy if he is given a decent farewell because he would have suffered much badly if this was a violent transition.

The youth generation, either on the left or right, hates the monarchy and blames the institution for all the ills the country is going through. NC will not risk its chance of resurgence by irking the new generation.

India too benefits in some way by the Maoists' win. Sitaram Yachuri has already said that the Indian Maoists can learn a lot from their Nepalis comrades. Indian government desperately wants the rebels who control vast swathe of the country to mainstream and perhaps wish that the Nepali example could persuade them to follow suit. Moreover, mainstream Indian communists have a good control over India's direct policy on Nepali politics, as they have on the federal government.

US, International community may not be happy but they are rather at ease without having to deal the Maoist militarily. If there will be a coup that overthrows the Maoists and force them back  to the jungles, they will have to take unwanted headache of equipping the NA for no Oil in return for an uncertain duration, probably for years.

Therefore, unless Maoists make terrible mistakes to the extent of implementing communist economic and social policies and thrashing the opponents, things will go with the flow. At least for a few years down the line. And that will transform the Maoists into a trustworthy outfit. While others will cleanse and reorganize themselves to pose a better challenge in the next election. However, I agree that we need to watch them closely.
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