Posted by: Captain Haddock April 14, 2008
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Very interesting thoughts there Adjunt Prof and Nepe. A couple of comments:
Carter meeting Prachanda : Big deal! Jimmy who? The same Jimmy Carter who went to Cuba and on his way back met with Hamas and got snubbed by Israel and the Bush Administration? As much as I admire the man, if Jimmy Carter meeting anyone is an indication of where this administration's mind is at, that is a big stretch if not a delusion IMO.
That said things might change in a Clinton or Obama administration where Carter has a wee bit better chance of getting heard.
A Moaist led government is likely to have a harder time getting international financial assistance unless they can pull out some tricks we haven't seen before.
Meet Nepal's newest right-wing party - the Nepali Congress: Baburam Bhattarai says the left will be represented by the Maoists the rest by the NC:
“There will be only two major political parties in Nepal — Nepali Congress, leading the bourgeois and wealthy people on the one hand, and the Maoists, leading the progressive and poor people. UML holds neither the characteristics of poor nor the rich,†- Dr Baburam Bhattarai
To AdjunctProf's point, I think this election has pushed the Congress and the Palace towards one another in a way unseen in Nepali history. I think we are in for some back room maneuvers and deals - perhaps not enough to save the monarchy but enough to save what's left of the Congress's skinned rear (and possibly even pave way for the restoration of the Monarchy some day in the future)
The Army coup that never happened: This is one for the conspiracy theorists but after Girija Koirala's damning interview about RAW and the meeting at the Indian Embassy between the NC and the Madesis, maybe there is some smoke to the India fire. If not, at a minimum, our politics is subject to Indian influence whether we like it or not. One of the biggest hurdles to the military staging a coup was the generally good relations between the "internationally community" (primarily the US and India) and the NC-led government. Now with the NC in the wilderness for the next couple of years and India and the US deeply suspicious of the Maoists, they have less to loose if power goes back to the Palace or the NC - especially if they can extract a price from both for such support. I dont see a coup happening right away because the the Maoists mandate is pretty overwhelming but in a few years there will likely be an opening for the US and India to throw their weight behind the former palace and the NC against the left.
Advantage Deuba : While GPK is likely to remain de-facto party boss till he lives (KPB being too fragile to run the party) these recent events strengthen Deuba's position as the heir-apparent.
Just some random thoughts - that's as punditocratic as I can get for one day
Carter meeting Prachanda : Big deal! Jimmy who? The same Jimmy Carter who went to Cuba and on his way back met with Hamas and got snubbed by Israel and the Bush Administration? As much as I admire the man, if Jimmy Carter meeting anyone is an indication of where this administration's mind is at, that is a big stretch if not a delusion IMO.
That said things might change in a Clinton or Obama administration where Carter has a wee bit better chance of getting heard.
A Moaist led government is likely to have a harder time getting international financial assistance unless they can pull out some tricks we haven't seen before.
Meet Nepal's newest right-wing party - the Nepali Congress: Baburam Bhattarai says the left will be represented by the Maoists the rest by the NC:
“There will be only two major political parties in Nepal — Nepali Congress, leading the bourgeois and wealthy people on the one hand, and the Maoists, leading the progressive and poor people. UML holds neither the characteristics of poor nor the rich,†- Dr Baburam Bhattarai
To AdjunctProf's point, I think this election has pushed the Congress and the Palace towards one another in a way unseen in Nepali history. I think we are in for some back room maneuvers and deals - perhaps not enough to save the monarchy but enough to save what's left of the Congress's skinned rear (and possibly even pave way for the restoration of the Monarchy some day in the future)
The Army coup that never happened: This is one for the conspiracy theorists but after Girija Koirala's damning interview about RAW and the meeting at the Indian Embassy between the NC and the Madesis, maybe there is some smoke to the India fire. If not, at a minimum, our politics is subject to Indian influence whether we like it or not. One of the biggest hurdles to the military staging a coup was the generally good relations between the "internationally community" (primarily the US and India) and the NC-led government. Now with the NC in the wilderness for the next couple of years and India and the US deeply suspicious of the Maoists, they have less to loose if power goes back to the Palace or the NC - especially if they can extract a price from both for such support. I dont see a coup happening right away because the the Maoists mandate is pretty overwhelming but in a few years there will likely be an opening for the US and India to throw their weight behind the former palace and the NC against the left.
Advantage Deuba : While GPK is likely to remain de-facto party boss till he lives (KPB being too fragile to run the party) these recent events strengthen Deuba's position as the heir-apparent.
Just some random thoughts - that's as punditocratic as I can get for one day
Last edited: 14-Apr-08 05:05 PM