Posted by: Captain Haddock April 13, 2008
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The numbers game has become much clearer now and the Maoists have what appears to be an insurmountable lead in elected seats at this point. The proportional tally is likely to muddle up the math somewhat but wont alter the overall Maoist lead going by how the popular vote is currently breaking out.
A couple of observations:
(1) R.I.P Monarchy: Going, going, gone! Unless King Gyanendra can pull up something from under his hat, this is it, it is over. What started with Drabya Shah in Lig Lig looks certain to end with Gyanendra Shah in Kathmandu barring any extraordinary events. The question to be asked is will the King seek India's help to save the Monarchy? Can India really save the monarchy? Even if it can, which I doubt, what price will it try to extract from the King?
(2) Congress the no-man's-party: The terai has been the bedrock of Nepali Congress politics - the Congress has historically been able to appeal to both Madesis and Pahades. Based on anecdotal accounts, the vote appears to have split along ethnic lines with the Pahade vote breaking in favor of the two Communist parties and the Madesi vote going towards the three Madesi parties. The Terai upsrising has cost the Congress dear. My take is in a polarized Terai, the Congresses trans-ethnic message found little appeal. Poor organization and lackluster candidates added to the problem.
(3) UML not communist enough: The Maoists are the new UML. Left leaning voters appear to have abandoned the UML and gone over to the Maoists in droves. Results from the east have helped up the party's total count but the Maoist rise has undoubtedly cost the UML badly. They can no longer claim with any credibility to be the torch bearers of revolution in Nepal.
(4) Koirala family in the jungle: The next generation Congress leadership is unlikely to come from the Koirala family. With Sher Bahadur Deuba and RC Pokhrel both winning, and with the losses suffered by candidates belonging to the family, even if Dr. Sashank Koirala wins, it will take him a long time to build his stature reach and a position of leadership. A Deuba-Pokhrel leadership tussle is a likely possibility after GPK.
(5) How did the Kings voters vote?: Support for the King might have decreased but which way did the former supporters of the King vote, if they did vote at all? How much of that 40% who did not vote were monarchists staying home unwilling to vote for the NC or UML? Since the RPP has performed poorly, one is left to wonder what happened to this diminished but still pertinent voting block
(6) Anti-communist alliance: After half a decade of pandering and seducing the left, will the Congress go back to it's anti-communist roots? Will the party try and be more leftist than the leftists or will it try to occupy the political space left vacant by the monarchy? This could be the basis for drawing the battles lines between Poudel and Deuba after GPK
(7) The million dollar question - how will the Maoists govern: Even if the SPA survives this election, the Maoists are bound to set the agenda. This could reach a point where the the NC and UML find it suicidal to stay in government. Depending on what the final picture looks like after the proportional seats are allocated, a cornered and threatened NC and UML could create a lots of headaches for the Maoists and we could be in for the musical chair type of politics we saw before the royal coup. The 2/3 majority requirement is both a blessing and a curse: it works well if there is trust and consensus but could be paralyzing if the parties start playing dirty.
Just some random thoughts.
| Won | Leading | Possible
Total (Won + Leading) |
|
| CPN (Maoist) |
69 | 38 | 107 |
| Nepali Congress |
20 | 13 | 33 |
| CPN (UML) |
20 | 11 | 31 |
| MPRF | 12 | 8 | 20 |
| MDLP | 4 | 1 |
5 |
| NSP | 1 | 1 |
2 |
| Other | 3 | 1 |
4 |
| TOTAL | 129 |
73 |
202 |
A couple of observations:
(1) R.I.P Monarchy: Going, going, gone! Unless King Gyanendra can pull up something from under his hat, this is it, it is over. What started with Drabya Shah in Lig Lig looks certain to end with Gyanendra Shah in Kathmandu barring any extraordinary events. The question to be asked is will the King seek India's help to save the Monarchy? Can India really save the monarchy? Even if it can, which I doubt, what price will it try to extract from the King?
(2) Congress the no-man's-party: The terai has been the bedrock of Nepali Congress politics - the Congress has historically been able to appeal to both Madesis and Pahades. Based on anecdotal accounts, the vote appears to have split along ethnic lines with the Pahade vote breaking in favor of the two Communist parties and the Madesi vote going towards the three Madesi parties. The Terai upsrising has cost the Congress dear. My take is in a polarized Terai, the Congresses trans-ethnic message found little appeal. Poor organization and lackluster candidates added to the problem.
(3) UML not communist enough: The Maoists are the new UML. Left leaning voters appear to have abandoned the UML and gone over to the Maoists in droves. Results from the east have helped up the party's total count but the Maoist rise has undoubtedly cost the UML badly. They can no longer claim with any credibility to be the torch bearers of revolution in Nepal.
(4) Koirala family in the jungle: The next generation Congress leadership is unlikely to come from the Koirala family. With Sher Bahadur Deuba and RC Pokhrel both winning, and with the losses suffered by candidates belonging to the family, even if Dr. Sashank Koirala wins, it will take him a long time to build his stature reach and a position of leadership. A Deuba-Pokhrel leadership tussle is a likely possibility after GPK.
(5) How did the Kings voters vote?: Support for the King might have decreased but which way did the former supporters of the King vote, if they did vote at all? How much of that 40% who did not vote were monarchists staying home unwilling to vote for the NC or UML? Since the RPP has performed poorly, one is left to wonder what happened to this diminished but still pertinent voting block
(6) Anti-communist alliance: After half a decade of pandering and seducing the left, will the Congress go back to it's anti-communist roots? Will the party try and be more leftist than the leftists or will it try to occupy the political space left vacant by the monarchy? This could be the basis for drawing the battles lines between Poudel and Deuba after GPK
(7) The million dollar question - how will the Maoists govern: Even if the SPA survives this election, the Maoists are bound to set the agenda. This could reach a point where the the NC and UML find it suicidal to stay in government. Depending on what the final picture looks like after the proportional seats are allocated, a cornered and threatened NC and UML could create a lots of headaches for the Maoists and we could be in for the musical chair type of politics we saw before the royal coup. The 2/3 majority requirement is both a blessing and a curse: it works well if there is trust and consensus but could be paralyzing if the parties start playing dirty.
Just some random thoughts.