Lets not forget that Kathmandu is a great city, and its people are amazing they gave vote to Nani Maiya Dahal despite of having heavyweight candidates in her constituency. People rule in ballot box. As Shirish said, "Delivery will be the measure lasting success".

Possibility for winning next election can be written in the following differential form dPy = dDy / Dy + dDpp/Dy - dDnp/Dy -dDr/Dr - dDp/Df

where

Py = Probability

Dy = your total successful delivery of your past promises during election campaign (current rate is dDy) .

dDnp = Negative publicity rate of  Delivery ( by opponent, by press, and other media )

dDpp = rate of positive publicity of your delivery.

Dr = current level of Delivery of rival "new" candidate, and dDr is his current rate of delivery if any any.

Df = failed Delivery = 1- Dy

The lower case "d" in front of these variables indicate that it is rate (differential). Now, you can calculate the total Probability by integrating this differential from lower limit of 0 to the value until today.

I believe the probability of winning by NC and UML heavy weight is probably because of very high dDnp, and too low dDpp. Note that there is "D" in the denominator, that means if your total delivery is very high, then your rate of possibility of losing the election is also very high. It is because in exponential curve when you are about to reach to the saturation level, the rate slows down and you are asymptotic, such that people will consider you are no more potent to any new deliveries, but your new rival whose promises seem more deliverable, and might ..... Look at this formula, and try to understand why these heavy weights lost the election. You don't have to agree with my equation, and you may come up with much better formula. This is what I feel.

GP