Total applications for master's quota should not exceed 25K. Last year, USCIS received 20K applications in one month. Even if the number of graduates increased by 20% (that is too high I believe), it should not exceed 24K. So the odd of getting H1B is approximately 83% (= 20/24). This is still a good chance. In the event you fall beyond 83%, you can either think about PhD or go back to Nepal.  The laler is the best option I guess.