Hey folks,
Lets make informed guesses out here. Do you even think there will be one party with a majority?  Of course, assuming that the elections are free and fair (which will probably not happen). As I see it, no party will be able to have a majority in the parliament, specially with the proportional system in place as well. However, I believe that Maoists will be the ones to lose their face again. I doubt if they can win more than a few seats under first past the post system.  It is highly unlikely for them to win more than a few seats because UML is way too popular and has a great grass root network. I won't be surprised if they don't win a single seat in first past the post system. I believe they will gather a few seats in the proportional system.

NC will benefit the most from the division among the communists. I think UML will do slightly better than it did last time when it was divided into ML and UML. NC will get more seats in the first past the post system than any other parties. Proportional system will possibly divide equal number of seats to NC and UML.

 Maoists are a weaker force compared to then ML because most of the ML leaders were well established and known to the public and they had been winning elections from their constituencies. Maoists' case is totally different. Some of them joined Maoists party after losing elections-many even dub them as taking arms because they lost general elections. So, maoists will face a battle to save their faces. Its pretty tough out there for them. Prachanda was hoping that UML will let him have communist votes but UML turned its back on him. He will certainly lose the election in KTM but might lose both the elections (unless of course, they use force).

Anybody ready to give their percentages? Mine would be as follows:
NC-39%
UML-33%
Maoists-7%
Others-21%