Nepe -

I have long since given up predicting when things will happen. What might happen seems easier to analyze than when. Just like Nepal's socio-economic conditions for the last seventy to eighty years were ripe for a communist revolution, Nepal's current socio-political condition are  ripe for an Army coup. Will it happen and when - I don't have enough information at my disposal to give definite answers although I found your  analysis interesting and realistic.

As for Mr Chaudhary -  haven't heard about him - but there is growing talk even amongst democrats and leftist of the possibility of such a coup.

As for Bathroom Coffee, to yours and Saroj's points, I am not psyched  by some of his language but neither am I bothered too much  by it.  In politics you have to be able to take the mud thrown at you (and throw it back) and I'd say my good friend Bathroom Coffee is providing free training to those in Sajha who want to become politicians in the future

Have a good day!