Obama cannot win the primaries or the general election on hope alone. Neither can Hillary or McCain on experience alone. While I am excited by Obama's candidacy, I am not deluded about his prospects. By the same token, neither am I deluded of anyone else's. George Bush won the 2000 elections in spite of a good economy that favored the Democrats. He won the 2004 election in spite of a not-so-good economy that again favored the opposition. The myth that Americans vote with their check books alone has long been dispelled (unless the economy is really really really bad)

Hope, I believe, is a campaign strategy for Obama just like race was for the Clintons. People might not vote for hope alone, but hey, it sure seems to drive up turnout. It's not that Obama doesn't have specifics, I have heard him talk in detail about social security and medicare reform. Talking about policy makes him like every other candidate, so by talking about hope and transcendental politics, he is doing what both Gore and Kerry failed to do and what Bush did so well : he is saying I may not be a policy wonk, but I can connect with you. If you think that can't win elections, think again.

Also, I think it is realitistic to expect the next President could be Obama, Clinton, McCain, Romney or Guiliani. Each of them has a realistic shot at it. That's about as much punditry I can do. Only as the numbers come in the real polls can anyone say anything with more certainty.

On another note, while I am not a big fan of Romney, here's an argument for his candidacy from a conservative blogger, that challenges the thinking that Romney cannot do well in the general elections. It appears many conservatives dont like McCain and might not turn out to vote for him going by the pronouncements of Rush Limbaugh and many conservative bloggers. If McCain doesn't get conservatives to vote for him and he is competing with Obama for independent votes,  I'd say that might give Obama the upper hand since the liberal core of the Democratic party is not  alienated from his candidacy the way the conservative core seems to be from McCain's. Now pit Hillary against McCain:  she has much less appeal against independents and McCain's hand gets stronger.

This is a wide open race and too fluid at this time. I think Hillary and Barrack have an equal shot at the nomination right now. Unless Guiliani or Huckabee do well in Florida  this could also shape out to be a two man race pretty soon on the Republican side between McCain and Romney.

All eyes on Florida and Super Tuesday for future trends.