The constituent assembly elections will be postponed once more, prompting Prime Minister Koirala to step down. And the military will step in.
An army-backed Nepali Congress-led government will take charge and announce the dissolution of the interim legislature. Most likely, the interim constitution will be abrogated, too. There is some uncertainty as to the legal underpinnings of the unfolding developments. One idea is the creation of a provisional constitutional order to be endorsed by a future mechanism.
The government will announce a referendum on the monarchy to be supervised by the United Nations. King Gyanendra will remain in “suspension” during this period, as the chief executive exercises the powers of head of state and government.
Clearly, the idea is to get at least 40 percent of the Maoists on board. The Chinese seem to be confident of winning that level of support. Recalcitrant sections will be the target of a massive security operation, jointly backed by China and India.
The Maoist leadership has sought – and received – assurances of full freedom to campaign against the monarchy. In return, they have pledged to honor any adverse result.
Sujata Koirala remains the front-runner for chief executive. Some in the army have voiced their preference for Sher Bahadur Deuba – who has the support of traditional constituents in the western democracies. Deuba’s name, however, is said to have been vigorously opposed from within the party, including some of his allies in the erstwhile Nepali Congress (Democratic).
The real catalyst for change is the “royalist” wing of the Nepali Congress. People like Khum Bahadur Khadka, Govinda Raj Joshi, Chiranjibi Wagle and Purna Bahadur Khadka genuinely fear a massive loss of support for the party from voters sympathetic to the continuation of the monarchy for the preservation of the Nepalese state.
A referendum on the monarchy would address a major part of the constituent assembly imperative. Such other issues as state restructuring, equitable representation and development, decoupled from the monarchy, would then be debated in light of Nepal’s experience of the last two years. A high-risk strategy, of course. But something Nepal’s principal international stakeholders believe may be the country’s last hope.