Posted by: torilahure07 July 27, 2007
Do you think Nepali Rs per 1 US Doller will go up or down?
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If the NPR gets devalued against INR then expect the inflation in Nepal to shoot up quite a bit. However, as all the instability has wrecked havoc with the industries that could have taken advantage of the devaluation, Nepal would not benefit much from it. Instead, due to the rapidly rising inflation, I expect further instability in the country. Hence, despite the economic factors (such as growth rate, inflation etc.) indicating that the NPR should be devalued against the INR, it will not be devalued. If NPR does get devalued against the INR, then the NPR will automatically gets devalued against all currencies. However, if NPR does not get devalued against INR, then there is a distinct possibility that the NPR will appreciate as the demand for US$ in India has declined considerably compared to supply. Also, in the context of Nepal, with all the remittances from Nepalese working abroad, the Nepalese market is saturated with the US $. Hence, the deciding factor would be whether the Nepalese Government would devalue NPR versus INR.
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