Posted by: eminitrader June 27, 2007
Making Money with Eminitrader
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Bri: I would not touch Blackstone here. It is trading below it's IPO price now, so is Fortress that went public recently. In some weird way it might have signaled a top. We are still in a major bull market so this market will go higher, but it pays to be patience and buy on a pullbacks rather than chase everything that is moving. Another thing that I noticed is that the Commercials are net long, so if the market goes down here it will go down more than the previous reactions. In previous reactions, the market has been down mostly 6-8%, so my guess is about 13-15% from the high, we are already down about 3% from the time I suggested the market was going down. If the market rebounds here and keeps on going up, we might see a crash like in 87. Before the crash in 87, the bonds were sinking, commercials were net long and investor sentiment was very high. I'd rather see a nice pullback now than a crash later. Did you get a chance to read the Dhandoo Investor? It is a good read.
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