Posted by: eminitrader May 5, 2007
Stocks Selection
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This is focused towards the wekend investors. Usually over the weekend you'll run a scan for a list of stocks and buy it after certain conditions are met. You can use MSN Stock Screener to find the stocks. Use the Deluxe version, it is free and pretty good. I will post the criterias, the entry trigger, stop-price and profit-taking rules. Here are the conditions. Price Change Last Quarter Greater than 20% Price Change Last month Less than 0% Average Volume (Monthly) Greater Than 200,000 Last Price Greater Than 3 Last Price Near 52 Week High 3 Month Relative Strength Display only Market Cap Greater Than 100 Million This should give you a list of stocks. Put those on the watch list. If there are many stocks that show up, add another condition and limit it by a particular industry. What are we looking for here? We are looking for stocks that had a nice run up the previous quarter and is under some profit-taking right now. We are looking to buy it as it is ready to resume it's uptrend. Entry-Trigger: Buy it the day after when closing price of the day is above the high of last week. So for example: Last week's high was 8.20, then wait till the price closes above 8.20. If on Tuesday of this week, it closes at 8.25, then buy it Wednesday morning. If there are multiple stocks that meet the criteria and you can't decide which one to buy then use the Relative Stength number. Buy the stocks with the highest RS. Stop Price: This is the price where you are going to sell if your analysis is incorrect and price starts going down instead of up. Our stop price is going to be the close below last week's low. If last week's low was 7.00, then you'll want to sell it the next day if today's close is below 7. Profit Taking: If your analysis is correct and the price is moving up, then do not sell it. You want to take your profits when the price goes below the low of last 2 Weeks. In the above scenario: Let's say we bought at 8.25. Our initial stop is 6.75 (close below 7). WEEK LOW HIGH STOP 0 7.00 8.25 1 8.00 9.30 6.75 2 8.00 10.00 6.75 3 8.50 9.00 7.75 (last 2 week's Low is 8.00 and 8.00) 4 9.00 10.00 7.75 As the price keeps advancing, you trail your stop with it but at the same time you want to leave enough room so that you do not get out due to the random noise. How many stocks to buy and how much to risk? It varies from person to person. It depends a lot on your risk tolerance, size of the capital and so forth. You should not risk more than 2-5% of your capital on any 1 trade. That way way have to be wrong 20 times in a row before you lose all your money. That could happen but very unlikely. It is the same as winning 20 in a row. Let's say you want to risk $150. In the above example: your initial risk is $1.50 per share, So you'll buy 100 shares only. If your initail risk is $300, then buy 200 shares and so forth. Don't forget to factor in commissions and other events that are not under your control. If a company comes out with bad news after the close the stock could open way below your stop price. You do not want to lose all your hard earned money because of 1 trade, similarly do not expect to hit a jackpot either. If you hit a jackpot take it but the goal is to make consistent money. Slow and steady. This strategy works well in bull market but NOT in a bear market. Identify whether we are in a bull market or a bear market(I have posted how I identify in another thread). Misc..... I have posted these in good faith and have back-tested over a period of years. I'm not sure when it will stop working. It could be tomorrow or in 20 years. Please test it on your own before you think that you have found the keys to the vault. I recommend you to run the scans, learn the conditions, and build a portfolio in yahoo finance before putting your actual money. If it seems to work for another 3-6 months, then go ahead and try small. If you are not seeing profits, then the strategy is flawed, do not use it. I wish you all the best.
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