Posted by: timetraveller May 4, 2007
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Recent poll of individual investors in the US ( small adnd large) showed a strikingly high percentage of them being ebarish on the current market. It desnt come as much surprise to me that people are expecting a recession but whats more shocking is that the market has been going uo despite lower numbers on everythin:- housing starts,, GDP, employment, etc etc...
Back in 2001, I was in Nepal and I; heard something about the NASDAQ bubble bust and the economy being in recession. Of course I didnt understand what all that meant since all I was concerened with was my faourite cricketer's standings and aishwarya Rai's hips.
Back in 2001, the market went up deep into the recession and then burst.
Do we have a similar situaion here? I read somewhere that short interest has been on the move north. Signs of a crash? or to extend it futher- a recession? If it is, I think we're being foold by the markets here. I'd be extremely cautious heading into mid-summer.
For the all the new traders I'd say look for CDs if you have 10,000-20,000. 5-10% interest in your local banks for CDs shouldn't be uncommon. the only downsde is youll have a restricted amount t0 capital.
For long term holdings I'd be extremely cautious. I wouldnt wanna wipe all of this year's gains.