Hey there Samsara - I think there is a very slim chance for the Maoists to come to power if the NC and UML play their cards well. I am generally hesitant to get into political punditry, but since you asked and you seem like an open minded person, I thought I'd oblige :) I think the NC has a good chance of regaining power (either by itself or in a post election coalition with some of the other parties). The UML's chances are somewhat less favorable because the lefitst vote which added upto about 40% combined in previous elections is will be split between the UML and CPN-M unless if they move to the center and compete with the NC. Maoists arms, what remains of them, are still an issue but the NC and UML have been gearing up organizational muscle power as well over the last few months. If you look at the Terai and eastern hills, I personally believe, the two parties have the organizational muscle to - at a minimum - bring their voters to the polls inspite of the Maoist presence. Going by past experience, the Army will be deployed around election time, which may have a countervailing influence in the major towns of the terai and eastern hills. If the NC can sweep the eastern region and central and western terai, they have a very good shot at power. Same for the UML if they can do it. The story in the western hills is different. The Maoists can expect to pick up seats there. And that is a loss for the NC because that's where they drew some of their support from in the past. That's why they may not end up with an outright majority and may need to coalesce with either the UML or Maoists after the elections to form a government. The situation in the Terai, contrary to conventional wisdom, favors the Congress in my opinion. The Madesi vote is likley to be split between Yadavs and what are called OBCs in India and the upper castes Madesis. The Pahade vote between Congress, UML and to a lesser extent Maoists. The NC is best suited to pick enough votes from each vote bank and come up with the highest count - though perhaps not a majority - in many places. The UML too is not too far behind on that account. Again, I hate doing crystall balling, and my purpose here is not so much to predict what will happen as much as it is to show that political calculations and trends at this time do not indicate a complete victory for the Maoists and they can still be beaten. Also while at it, my support of SPA is issue based for the most part. In politics there are no permanent friends an enemies and I do not love anyone - no, I dont love that parties and neither do I hate anyone - I don't hate the King or Maoists for example even though I dont agree with them all the time. As a patriotic Nepali, I want to see my countrymen live a live of dignity and prosperity and I think at this time their best shot at doing that is through the pluralistic political system that every one in the country - even Maoist and moderate Monarchists - wants.