Posted by: Samsara April 10, 2007
Downfall of dollar rate-
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bored, your line should've read: Kathmandu's love for spending with the foreign reserves sent by Nepalis working abroad is the only saviour to the NPRs downfall. My viewpoint is that the only reason most people send money back is that they plan to return back to Nepal one day when they feel they've toiled enough and live off that money. What if realization sets in and all these migrant workers decide to remain in the countries they're in because of the political instability, extortions, etc. and retain most of the money in their host countries to better their lives there? Nepal's financial gains from tourism aren't the way it used to be (may take years for it to come back...but do we have time?), our industries and agricutural sectors are so behind the cheaper and more efficient competition from India that exporting Nepali goods is a joke in itself and our monetary policy changes will hardly attract any foreign investments thanks to the costs being higher than the benefits reaped because of the political instability and poor infrastructure inherent within our system...Where now do we get our foreign reserves if all the above fails and our Nepali expatriates decide to stop sending money back home? With no demand for the NPR, isn't it then doomed to a free-falling asteroid? I'm still wondering how after all these years we were still able to maintain the peg at 1.6 with India. Sooner or later, this is bound to give in. You're right that any expectation of currency devaluation can have serious repercussions in the economy...But, isn't it nicer to know things a lil earlier rather than wait for the shark feeding frenzy to take place and be left out with nothing int eh end? Also, there would be more money in circulation (not less as you pointed) as the demand would fall dramatically and the scenario would be reminiscent of Nazi Germany after WW1 when a cart full of money got you a loaf of bread! That, my friend is too dramatic...But what I'm trying to say is that, at the current rate of the situation in Nepal, the NPR is bound to crash anytime and it'd help to be a lil aware than totally ignorant...
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