Posted by: timetraveller December 29, 2006
simple investment ideas!
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China's my favourite so far. I'm sick of Chinese food here at my college and every freakin mall but I love Chinese oil and gas, telecom, manufacturing..... I'm not aware of companies, I may have to search for some ADRs listed on the North American exchanges. But those are the indutries within China I'm optimistic about. However, one needs to keep in mind that, foreign exchange, which could turn out to be the biggest gainer ...as is evidenced by the United State's constant bickering with China to float its curency and Henry Paulson, (former Goldman Sacs CEO with $38 million compensation package in his last year before quitting to get a mere $200,000 salary at the US Treasury) 's visit to China recently to bug them about it is another factor to consider. For those who are not aware, think about it this way: Say china's curreny is X and United States currency value is 4X. However, china's currency is undervalued meaning China's currency only appears as 0.5X. What does that do? The companies within the US (and NOT the gvernment as thought by many) will consider China's labour and products cheap. Ho ki hoina? If I have to pay the Chinese one fourth of what I have to pay you- the AMRIKAN- I'd be more than happy as a businessman. But you van;t just write the Chinese a cheque. With import export, what comes into play is government bonds. If I want to get something from China, I'll need Chinese currency. I go to Ben Bernanke (the current Federal Bank chief) and his band of merry men and ask for chinese yen. Benny won't give me that easily. He says, ok, you can get your products (imports) into the US but I will issue China bonds which me and my boys will later pay back. So the US owes China money that way primarily and others (this is a very crude example and very basic). But the US shouldn;t have a problem paying. But why is US pushing China to float (i.e. let it's currency compete with other currencies) its curreny? Doing that will cause Chinese Yen to rise against the dollar and US companies will be hard pressed to find cheap labour in China. So they will have to find labour somewhere else. Dong that will hurt the Chinese. They're like fleas, feeding on the giant US rat's blood. If the US companies take their hands out of China, it's huge international investment in the country will be doomed. And what will that lead to? Eventually more stability within the US and China- could take 50-60 years but in the ntermediate term, it'll cause US firms to porudce far lesser returns and we could see a bear market. That's why foreign investments seem so much attractive. This informaton is already being discounted by insiders. The Chinese central bank is already selling off US currency and diversifying into Gold. Gold is a safe heaven in times of crises- my mum taught me that since was 6 years old. when investors flee the US markets and liquidate their positions- where do they go to? GOLD!!! AND WHO HAS THEM? CHINA! SO MY PICK for the near future- GOLD!
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