Posted by: Captain Haddock October 26, 2006
The Globalization Index : Winners and Losers
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From the same article: Ask investment bankers about globalization’s newest frontier, and they might respond with one cryptic syllable: BRIC. The acronym, coined by the investment bank Goldman Sachs, stands for Brazil-Russia-India-China. “If things go right,” says one Goldman report, “in less than 40 years, the BRIC economies together could be larger than the G6 [Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United States] in US dollar terms.” But for all their prominence in predictions about globalization’s future, the BRICs have generally scored poorly on the Globalization Index, in large part because they have massive populations that are still rural and isolated from the global economy. This year’s index shows that the isolation may finally be ending. China climbed three spots in the index, while Brazil and Russia each improved by five places. India’s ranking remained the same, but its overall performance improved in most areas. Each of these developing-world heavyweights is opening up in its own way. China’s trade volume grew to more than $1 trillion in 2004, pushing it past Japan to become the world’s third-largest trading nation (behind the United States and Germany). Foreign direct investment in Russia rose on the strength of the oil and gas sector. Investors also warmed up to India and Brazil in 2004—foreign direct investment in those countries increased by 23 and 80 percent, respectively. Today the BRICs are best known for the goods they supply to the rest of the world: everything from inexpensive consumer electronics to commodities and information technology services. But what happens when their consumers start connecting with the global marketplace? Experts believe that an economy starts to hit a “sweet spot” in terms of consumer spending when income per capita crosses $3,000 per year. Russia has already reached that level, and China and Brazil may be there in the next decade, with India following close behind. International banks are already lining up to help provide the plastic for the anticipated consumer boom. At that point, globalization will have an important new engine: millions of developing-world consumers armed with credit cards and a hunger to spend.
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