Poonte dai Before moving on, let me tell this: I have really enjoyed talking IR issues with you here. You being my senior (not only in age) with a somehow above average cranial capacity, I have learned a great deal from you whether debating about Iran or China...but when it comes to our own pyaro Nepal, well.... you know..:-( Now back to business: You wrote: "he key here will be the suspicion that NK's test was actually nuclear. Thre have already been questions raised about the test's nuclear validity, with some countries like France, saying it was just an extraordinary explosion, but doubting it was nuclear. Unless this can be verified, it will be hard to maintain the unity against NK. It is also believed that despite the tests being genuine, NK lacks the capacity to build larger nuclear misslies. Otherwise, even the perceived enemies would not hesitate to make friends in this case, particularly China vis-a-vis Japan and the US. Nonetheless, this new alliance, I believe will be able to do little, without promising prospects of a military intervention. " According to this week's Newsweek web exclusive filed by Melinda Liu from Beijing and somebody else from somewhere else, its the size of the explosion we should worry about most because the Osama Binladen clique will prefer smaller weapons than the bigger ones. There's no doubt in where I am atleast that NK did test nuclear weapons. Forget France, its way way way too far to exactly measure the seismic waves and all that scientific mumbo jumbo. I would rather believe the Russian reports. "Military intervention can be virtually ruled out simply because US cannot afford it at this time. And without such an intervention, sanctions will have little effect on the government of NK, despite them affecting the people on the grounds. NK's government has proven their capability to survive without international or domestic support -- such is the nature of totalitarian regimes. Sanctions which might have tremendous effect, such as oil embargo, would be opposed by China in particualr, because it wouldn't want to destablize NK either -- China is having to thread a precarious balance of containing nuclear NK and, at the same time, ensuring such efforts won't herald berserk outcomes. " I agree with some reservations because what you are implying is (if i didn't misread you), that China would be more concerned with the destable NK than NK developing even more bigger and powerful nulcar weapons. No, I don't think so. What I think is ( and I am not challenging you in any way) China would rather have a destable NK and accept some NK refugees than have a NK with advanced nuclear capabilities. So the Chinese will once again show their pragmatic attitude and either absent from the security council voting on China -- or support the American led sanctions. "Foreign policy is out of necessity, not out of sympathy"-- we learn this in our IR 51 class, hoina ta poonte dai. Ideological allies have to be sacrificed to make sure your nation stays safe :-), ho ki hoina? Also let's not forget: The NK people are like you and me.. they also want a better future for their children and things like that.. so you know, they might show their middle finger to that Juche (Self reliance and be poor) philosophy of KIm and rebel against the present regime... we never know. But one thing is sure: Binas kaley biparit buddhi.. it was the worst time to test nuclear weapons. Captain Hadock wrote: " A unified Korea, if and when that happens, with the economic might of the South and the military might of the North will be a force to reckon with in the regional if not global stage. " It will not happen for atleast 50 years from now. The SK actually don't wnat reunification because an united KOrea mean a huge no. of unemplyed, poor, hungry and angry people. What the SK wnat now is that the NK regime opens up a bit and starts focuisng on economic reforms. SK is not wiling to unite, and NK is in the hands of a .. well.... you know what I mean. :-) I take my earlier words back: Carlsberg is still the best beer in the worl.. la ja ta! and finally to nell, "power is the ultimate aphrodisiac" (I am ashamed to write this but the guy who uttered these words was recently awarded an honorary PhD degree by my department in my alma mater.. k bhanne kaliyug!!) But we all know in Kaliyug, its the not-so-great ones that are powerful, well...maybe you are right too. Who knows NK's going nuclear might actually lead to a lasting peace in NE Asia.. And loote kukur, IR is all about speculations...so speculative imaginative and even hypothetical stuff are not to be dismissed just like that. :-)