Posted by: isolated freak October 12, 2006
North Korea explodes bomb : Press coverage
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Kasto jhanjhat.. sabai italics ra underline bhayecha.. anyways this is how I wanted it to read.. Loote Kukur and Lakh Ma Ek, "while i tend to agree with you on most of your points, i still don't buy the argument that china will support US in shunning down NK in the long run. please allow me some privilege to be a bit speculative at this moment. china have blatantly condemned the nuke test but it does NOT give any signal at the moment that they will support US, if a war is going to take place. " I said China will support the US led sanctions, not a war in the Korean peninsula. So far the Chinese leadership protected economically and politically the North Korean regime thinking that it will not go against its benefactor's interests, but now Kim will probably be "taught a lesson" [2] by China, which at this point mean, withdrawing economic support and approving the American led sanctions etc. " I also think that the US will try to diffuse the crisis diplomatically by bringing China to its side. A diplomatic settlement is a win-win for all the sides involved. However it might happen a bit later because one school of thought states that the US will not try to deal SERIOUSLY with the Korean problem before Japan acquires a nuclear bomb or significantly militarizes itself. But a full-fledged war between the US and NK is very very unlikely at this point or near future. Getting militarily involved in Korea means only one thing: Getting on China's bad side and a "likely" war with China itself, and believe me the American policy makers are not that stupid. Even Truman at the height of Cold War did not dare to mess with China, and one of the decorated American heroes of Second World War, who siglehandedly changed Japan, Gen. Douglas Mcarthur, was relieved of his SCAP duty in Japan for stretching the Korean war to China and stating nuking China publicly. You might find this book interesting: The Tragedy of American Diplomacy by William Appleman Williams if you want to analyze the American foreign policy through the prism of "market imperialism." Lakh ma ek, *Though Rice has denied the invasion of N.Korea in coming days, could there be? The answer is no at this point. Bush jr. will not invade or attack North Korea. *As N.Koreans are taking the sanctions as a symbol of war, their close ally China take part in war against who (if war breaks out)? This is just rhetorics. The NK leadership wants to appear tough so that it remains in power. Nationalism and ultra nationalism are the forces that is exploited by the leadership in any given "closed" country. However, the leadership knows that it is not ready to fight the only superpower, and the Superpower is not attacking it for it (NK) shares a long border with China. NK knows that China will not allow the US to invade it (NK) so it can appear as strong as it wants to appear and state what it wants to state when dealing with the US. *How about Russia and Japan? Good question: Russia probbaly considers NK's nuclear armament as a way to check China in the long run (my view). This is an interesting event for Japan. Now it can update their SDF and possibly develop nuclear weapons, or they can simply ask for more high-tech military hardware and more military personnel in Japan as a way to check not only Korea, but also China and Russia. *Which country would be its first target S.Korea or Japan? (China is not likely to take part in war immediately) None. Like I said, neither S Korea and Japan are likely to be attacked because if NK attacks either of them, then all hell will break lose. Kim might be stupid but the people whosurround him and whose interests are closely tied to the regime's survival won't let Kim have his way and monkey around with the new set of deadly weapons. -I hope to get good opinions once again. Once again thanks for your views. Thanks much for yopur nice words but my opinion is neither good nor well-informed. So feel free to disagree and comment on it. We learn from challenging (respectfully, that is) each other. Now back to karyalaya.
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