Lakh_ma_ek, I am not that well-read on the issue, but here's my two cents: 1. I can't speak for all, so here's what I, isolated freak, think of the issue: On the tests: NK's test is definately not good for the NEA (North East Asia) region, or for NK itself. Kim Il Jung gravely miscalculated the impact it will have on NK because of the tests. First, it will unite (it already has- Shinzo Abe's China visit does signal something!) China and Japan, the two East Asian giants. Also it will force (some analysts predict that it has already happened) China to change its special policy vis-a-vis NK. Now with America already on its bad side, and China denouncing NK's tests as "brazen and flagrant (violation of Prolifiration regime)" [1]. Kim junior's euphoria after having successfully tested the deadly bomb is not going to last for long. So far the Chinese leadership protected economically and politically the North Korean regime thinking that it will not go against its benefactor's interests, but now Kim will probably be "taught a lesson" [2] by China, which at this point mean, withdrawing economic support and approving the American led sanctions etc. Japan is not likely to stay quiet. Japan has already denounced it strongly. Shinzo Abe is not a pacifist, he is a nationalist. If we believe Nicholas Kristoff, Japan now has the perfect excuse to create its own full-fledged military and more importantly, test its own nuclear weapons. According to some security analysts, if Japan desires to have nuclear weapon, it can have it in 2 months time. Japan's H2 and H2A missiles can be converted into nuclear warheads in no time, and the Japanese leadership has always been vague on Japan acquiring nuclcear weapons [3]. What NK's test has achieved is, it has helped in uniting the majority (or the significant minority, depending on one's views) of Japanese people in supporting the nationalistic revival in Japan. If Japan decides to join the nuclear club, then we will see the classic European pre 1st world war security dillemma, arms race at work in East and South Asia. China will be forced to update its arsenal, which means India will be forced to update its arsenal, and to preserve the balance of power, Pakistan will be forced to update its arsenal. This is indeed not a good sign. 2. Is there going to be a war? Well, in the short run, no. No one knows what will happen in the long run. Maybe NK will be given the great power status it desires, and things will cool down, or maybe it will lead to a arms race like I wrote above. At this point, its not possible to tell what is going to happen in the long run. But I personally see no prospects of a full-fledged war soon in the Korean Peninsula. 3. I don't think Mr Kim will be on his knees pleading for his life or hiding like a rat like Saddam in the short run. Nobody can tell what will happen in the long run. Maybe the NK people will choose a new sensible leader.. Notes: 1. This is the first time China has used this phrase in its dealings with North Korea. For more, today's NYT. 2. When Vietnam invaded Cambodia in the late 70s, Deng Xiaoping told a group of reporters in Singapore that Vietnam will be taught a lesson.. and it was taught a lesson by China. Why use the word teach: Chinese culture like any Asian culture is based on the concept of hierarchy. The younger ones should be mindful to their elders' wishes. When it comes to dealing with other coutries, especially the neighboring countries, Chinese hope that they (neighboring countries) be at least mindful to China's security interersts. China's interests is not served by the NK leadership by tesing the bomb. 3. "My Country Right or Wrong", Nicholas Kristoff in Nicholas Kristoff and Sheryll Wu Dunn, "Thunder from the East: Portrait of a Rising Asia." This essay is the best essay in that book. Feel free to disagree.