I have seen the Pr(Italy wins this time) >= 0.70, and I know that outcome is partly a play of chance. I don't claim like "Italy wins!" with Pr=1, other side is also possible, though less probable. so, you seem to be psychic instead, you said in advance "France wins" and you are unable to see that there is other part of coin which is more vigorous this time. Just recall that mine was prediction (it's science, not the astrology, get it baby, better say infant!!) that Italy 2- 1 France. hmmmmmm