i think you point that there would be pro - republic majority being 99.99% is completely wrong.How do you analyze that just because 200-300 k people come out on the streets.I am not taking favor of monarch but your guessestimation is very highly unlikely.Most of nepalese people are confused and this is advantage to monarchs .As well as the nature of maoist is another advantage to monach. Since the guessetimation is not in proper place the chances are 50-50.The later the CA the better for King.The more maoist break law the more advantage to king. Also CA cannot be refreendum.CA is not true democractic process.It is representative style where the voice of majority can be negelected as seen in BUSH and ALGORE case. So , i do not completely support the idea of CA as it is not refrendum(not true democracy) But alternative are hard to implement .i agree with that. Also the war crime . When maoist and if maoist comes to the power .If there bad intentions are fullfilled then it is the begining of revenge politics.I doubt they would acknowldege any wrong doing on their part.They have not admitted till now .will they ever admit when they are wining? There is no point going to CA unless and atleast They disarm which is vey highly unlikely.If we go without disarming them they will never agree.No international pressure or national pressure can convince them .We have seen that in past. Commies are very good with words but hardly ever they keep their words. Peace in Nepal was only during panchayat era (at least it seemed like , agreed was dominated so badly but atleast we didn't had this)Now no matter maoist remains in mainstream of goes back to jungle i hardly doubts these dogs are not going to fight for the bone.