Posted by: mickthesick May 23, 2006
Nepalese Economy In South Asia
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. I did a research on the topic "Impact of the Maoist led Civil Rebellion in the Economy of Nepal". The economy of Nepal was measured in terms of Nepalese GDP, and the factors that could affect the Nepalese GDP were Maoist led war (WAR), democracy (DEM), physical capital available (CAP), open trade policy (OPEN), the U.S. GDP since it is a major export destination for Nepalese products (USA), and index of political and civil freedom of expression in Nepal (FREE). My results that I obtained are as follows: 1. The t-test showed that all the variables, except DEM, were significant. [ Means, the economic development so far in Nepal is not determined by democracy being available or not]. 2. A 1% increase in physical capital lowers the Nepali GDP by Rs. 23 per person.[One would actually expect the GDP to increase when there is more capital available to invest. But then again, the capital doesn't get invested and goes into the pockets of politicians]. 3. When Nepal experiences increased freedom in civil liberties, the Nepali GDP lowers by Rs. 162 per person. [ This could be the result of increased corruption when there's increased freedom]. 4. When Nepal opens itself in trade and starts trading heavily and relaxing its trade barriers, a 1% increase in trade causes Rs. 1435 increase per person in the Nepali GDP. 5. During years of the Maoist insurgency, Nepali GDP rose by Rs. 205 per person.[This does not mean the Maoist insurgency is helpful to increase the GDP. This number is simply a statistical value that my study calculated.] The R-squared value for this regression was 0.98 which means the variables chosen in my regression were able to explain 98 percent of the movement in the Nepali GDP. Also, the Durbin Watson for my study was 1.93. A Durbin Watson value close to 2.0 tells us that the variables worked fine with each other and did not have any overlaps. I know most of you will not agree to the above results. And it is sensible. But, this study only tells the numbers and facts based on the chosen variables. There may be other critical variables that I did not include in my study.
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