.and for those who prefer not to follow the link, here is the text.. (this was posted right after the 1st address, and i think the writer may have something here) it's over. it's been over since gyane's speech on friday. events since then are mere enactment of a drama orchestrated carefully, and very very strategically by the seven parties, india, united states, and of course not without the reluctant approval of the king. endgame? the king has lost. in a few days - cannot quite predict whether it will be the day before tuesday or the day after tuesday, kg will come on the tele again and declare his decision to revive the house. here's why i think so. although the masses responded to the parties' call to encircle the city on thursday, by mid-day on thursday it had become very clear that the parties had no control whatsoever over the "sea of humanity". questions about the composition of the masses (maoists sleepers, unruly youth in for a day of venting out juvenile frustration on hapless policemen, people who had "nothing else to do"..etc.) had been raised right from the beginning. more confusing was the ambiguity surrounding the very objective of the movement. what was the goal again? and there were hardly any spa leaders around to clarify these things and harness and direct the energy of the masses towards a particular objective or a goal. things got ugly in kalanki spurring a bigger backlash that began right from thursday night. again, the leaders were one step behind the masses. by the time KG spoke on friday evening - which by the way was a recorded speech (implying they were waiting for the right time to air it) - two things had become very clear. one, the size, confidence and the objective of what's been called the "fourth" dimension of nepal's hitherto triangular conflict (the people) had significantly overtaken the seven parties' wildest imagination. and two, the king had accepted defeat and had nibbled on whatever it was that karan singh offered to make his exit as graceful as possible given the unenviable position he had gotten himself into. what came was a shocker was the king's offer! it was as if he was negotiating from a position of strength and as some leaders have put it, totally failing to gauge the urgency of the situation. and given all the diplomacy (read arm-twisting) the indian delegation had done in their two days in ktm, it was too little to be true. if the king had already conceded defeat, and the indians had in fact succeeded in brokering the middle path between kg fleeing the country and the maoists taking over, then kg must have definitely had to yield more than that deceitful invitation. well if he yielded more, then why didn't he declare it on friday? i posit that the public mood on friday was such that even if the king had agreed to revive the house, it wouldn't have been enough. people wanted to storm the palace and kick g out of the country. and most importantly the political parties, despite house revival being their starting point (not always unanimous but the common minimum for the majority), were in no position to sell this to the people at that time. hence a decoy. a necessary intermediate step if you will. whatever kg offered on friday was deliberate and it was offered just so the political parties would have the opportunity to heroically decline this offer and by doing so (that precious photo-op atop koirala's house being a bonus) they have been able to reconnect with the people. gain some credibility back. rejecting this offer has also given the political parties an opportunity to reieterate and clarify their objective. and it is important to recognize that although there are three or more clear cut demands or goals the spa wish to achieve from this movement, these are not simultaneously achievable goals: they are sequential. and although the scary constitutional assembly is one of them, it is preceded by house revival and an all party government. i think the parties - through their statement rejecting the king's offer - have also sent a gentle message to the maoists that if they are going to get to constitutional assembly eventually, it's going to be through the the spa route and not through the maoists' route. in other words - if this hypothesis turns out to be true then they will have basically wrested the initiative back from the maosits and and brought this movement back to the middle path. which i personally see as the best end to this impasse. even as i write this, im hearign rumours that the king is considering imposing an emergency. if he does, this prediction will definitely turn out to be wrong but it won't matter anymore because there's no sure way to put yourself and your country on "self-destruct" mode than to impose an emergency right now. people might consider house revival to be an insufficient platform for the parties to compromise. they may say what? isn't that like pre-oct 4? all this to go back 3 years in time? answers to these questions, should they arise, will be the topic of another post i suppose..