Posted by: ashu April 21, 2006
King throws ball back to SPA: Is it a Deal of No Deal
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Those who hate the king for whatever reasons will say: "No deal, and let's fight until the king is driven out." This means, a continuation of what's been happening for the past two weeks, on an escalated pace. But SPA leaders may not want to go down this route now, for it means that they are likely to be swept aside altogether in the process too. SPA leaders may say that they are doing for the people, but their own vested interests to get back to power are not to be overlooked. It matters what the neighbors say. And it matters what India advises the SPA leaders. At the moment, India's official line is: "Multi-party democracy and constitutional monarchy in Nepal." To that end, Yashsant Sinha -- who'll be in Nepal on 24 April -- is likely to say to the party leaders, "Call off the protest movement. Choose your PM. Go for the elections. Go for a fresh beginning. Start things in a new parliament. And get on with life. " China, which is increasing its trade and investments in India, will give a nod to India's position.Neither of these two big countries want to deal with anarchy, violence and mayhem of a failed state in their midst -- and will do everything to calm the situation now. The US and the Britain will play this line too. As for the king, he has narrowly saved his throne for now. Though he started off with a "I am in charge" message in February 2005 when everything was then in shambles, his failure to deliver on his promises has made the everything worse, and cost him and the institution of monarchy dearly. If he's going to do anything sensible for himself now, it's to engage in a series of PR exercises and not engage in further political maneuevering. If he tries to be too clever by half again, he'll be gone -- because he has shown himself to be an inept politician and a lousy business strategist who cannot anticipate opponents' various moves. But it all depends on the people now. If they say, "Not enough". More street-level protests from tomorrow onward. If not, the situtation will be gradually be diffused by the curfew-weary public for now. oohi ashu
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