Posted by: Nepe April 16, 2006
Janatako boli neta ko kalam bata
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Lonelyji, १) केही गैरराजनैतिक अवसर र स्थानमा उल्लेख्य संख्यामै उच्च, मध्यम त तल्लो दर्जाका सैनिकहरुसंग कुरा गर्ने अवसर पाएको छु । र उनीहरुको राजनैतिक चेतनशिलताबाट छक्क परेको छु (म त उनीहरुलाई पञ्चायतकालकै जस्तै भेडा ठान्ने गर्दथें त्यतिन्जेल, नत्र ।) २) वीरेन्द्रको परिवारनाशपछि राजतन्त्र demystified भएको छ । ज्ञानेन्द्रको परिवार प्रति सेनाको वफादारिता वीरेन्द्रको तुलनामा अत्यन्त कमजोर, अत्यन्त नगन्य छ । ३) जो वफादारीता छ, त्यो पनि merit based नभएर प्राविधिक कारणको मात्र छ । ४) ज्ञानेन्द्रको उत्तराधिकारी, केही गरी राजा भईहाले भने (अल्पायु राजपरिवारको वंशानुगत गुण देखिन्छ, त्यसैले यो सुदुर भविष्यको सम्भावना होईन), प्रति त सेनाले आत्मग्लानी बाहेक अरु केही महसुस गर्नेछैन । *** *** *** *** So, I think we are overestimating army's loyalty to Gyanendra's family. When Gyanendra is gone, the whole army will pledge it's loyalty to the Civil government. As for the possibility of rebellion by some officers, what would they do it for ? For dignity ? I think this kind of thing will be very negligible. In any case, an assurance of dignity to co-operating officers would be a good policy on part of the political parties. There is one issue that needs to be handled carefully however. That is about the issue of the Maoist army. It should be clarified. Although the Maoists have pledged their commitment to democratic republic, the republican revolution will be smoother if political parties appear leading it. The movement is now decisively pro-republic. However, Koirala-led SPA is still reluctant to accept republic as a goal. This is where it is not helping. Politically correct or not, at this point, the Maoists are virtual political leadership to the pro-republic mass movement. So, SPA needs to make republic as it's goal in order to snatch the leadership, virtual though, of the movement from the Maoists' hands. So SPA has some tough and bold decisions to make. If they did, change will come relatively smoothly. If not, it is going to be quite bumpy. Change led by SPA's leadership will be smoother. That by Maoist's leadership will be bumpy and bloody. Led whether by SPA, Maoist, their alliance or just by spontaneity of the mass, the movement will continue until it establishes the republic. Nothing is over until republic is established. If SPA gives up, Maoists are there. If Maoists give up, whose likelihood is next to zero, expect a new round of armed rebellion of democratic republicans. However, things will never go that far. Gyanendra's satta is a house of cards when ordinary Nepali people rise up. And now they have. Nepe
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