Was going through this page... its really scary ... anyone involved in AIDS prevention .. can you please put light on this please... http://www.youandaids.org/Asia%20Pacific%20at%20a%20Glance/Nepal/index.asp The Potential for a Rapid Increase in HIV Prevalence Behavioural and sero-prevalence data indicate the high potential for a generalised epidemic in Nepal. In the absence of effective interventions, even a "low to moderate growth scenario" would make AIDS the leading cause of death in the 15-49 year old population over the coming years. For Nepal, this would mean that around 100,000-200,000 young adults will become infected and that overall 10,000-15,000 annual AIDS cases and deaths due to related illnesses may be expected. The following table shows three scenarios: a "low-stable" scenario, with the sero-prevalence levelling off at 0.5% in 2005; a "low-moderate growth" estimate with a prevalence rate of 1% in three years time; and finally a "moderate growth" model, reaching 1.6% in 2005. The difference between the three scenarios is the actual gain in lives, provided that the response to the epidemic in Nepal is effective enough to impact on the development of the epidemic.