Posted by: anjanp February 6, 2005
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Dear Newuser, Let us continue on our topic. Yesterday, I wrote on India?s role in extracting some vital (in terms of having long term impact) treaties from us. Another perspective of looking at our(nepali) fate will be the ?introspection?. If we look at our own then we will find no one to blame but us. Given opportunity any nation will benefit from others?.theory of Darwin known as ?Survival of the fittest? applies here. You have to be smart enough to not let other exploit yourself. Viewing from this angle, it is very frustrating that except, very few, there have not been a single leader ? whether king, the panches or the netas of multi party ? to clearly forward the agenda of Nepali janta. In this regard, I don?t want to assign all blame on to leaders for all the mess. We, the people of Nepal, never ever became thoughtful when it came to our hand to decide fate of our nation at the time of election. Even today, the so-called educated mass do not prefer even to talk about politics. How can we change the system if we do not participate on it? It is all up to us to decide our own fate if we believe in democracy. Having expressed personal view let me focus on the current unfolding situation in Nepal. The very big question at this point of time is how Gyane has been able to take such an unprecedented step and what will happen in future? Have u given close look to his speech at times? In all speech, he was included words multi party democracy, constitutional monarchy. Give your deep thinking in this. Why would he repeat these words again and again while doing exactly contrary to the spirit of what has been said. He is very cunning( and not intelligent) to not ignore these words. Just compare this with what Parvez Mushaaraf of Pakistan said when he took over Pakistan. Now, relate this with global agenda of president Bush of anti-terrorism philosophy. Until and unless this King can persuade US on terrorism issue, believe me ?..US will never seriously take his anti democratic move. Because of this word ?terrorism? there is now redefinition of ?democracy?. This is now America led vision of democracy not the real democracy founded on its basic norms and values. Moreover, these Americans have kind of ?phobia? with the word ?communist?. They will commit anything to not let communists take over. All these point toward one thing ? Gyane without some assurance from US would never dare to take such a move. If u personally ask me, I really don?t believe any country other than US can influence politics of any other nation, not even UNO, Britain or EU or any other. However, the only other factor to be considered in our case is the India due to our geographical location ? being India locked from three sides. In the present context, India and US, with best of relation in history, will not go contrary to each other. Whatever New Delhi does will be in line and within the eagle eye view of US. Do not forget here that India is desperately trying to get permanent seat in Security Council and without support from US that is virtually impossible. So, definitely, there is some positive correlation between king?s move and the favorable assurance from these influencing external parties (India & US). If this is the case, which I pray to god to not be true, then believe me king will comfortably pacify and oppose any move against him. He has nothing to worry ? he will not have his exchequer go empty until there is this hand of US in his head and the military might of US and India to back him up. He will, damn, not bother about nepali janata. Let us now imagine differently to above hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis goes like this. It has been 234+ years since ?Shah? regime has reined Nepal with full and final control over Royal Nepal Army. Just give a close look at the structure and composition of RNA. U will find either Shah, Thapa, or Rana among the top army commanders. This is probably true up to 90% extent. Think who these surnames represent ? just a bunch of feudal attitude close relative of ?Shah? family. In such a situation, u can not expect a real mutiny from within the army. With increased power of army (now 78000), it is virtually impossible to defeat king completely and take over royal palace, by Maoist, even when they use their fullest of strength. Ground reality is that even if we imagine defeat of army around the suburbs of valley and imagine a very unlikely scenario when they(Maoist) enter the valley, the 5000 army (protecting palace) with all the sophisticated arms and ammunition will be impossible to overcome. All these situation are fictitious. But the only point I am trying to make here is the realization of the fact that how can a force built in 9 years defeat the organized army which has existed since last 234+years. This king, going by his nature, will ruin the country but not let his ?gaddi? to be taken away. And he can fabricate many situations to display to the international community that he is not doing this for his throne but to the cause of people. It is better in the interest of Maobadi and Nepali Janta that they adopt different strategy to defeat king. This type of arms struggle will just make king powerful and the country poorer day by day. The only possible option that seems likely is the alliance of political parties and maoist to come up with some deal and establish peaceful movement. I remember Gandhi movement in this context. No one in the contemporary world had ever thought that a man with ?no personality? will one day root out the British raj ? which they were proud to say ?Sun never sets in Great Britain?. Compare this logic with what has been going on in Iraq. Can those insurgents ever win against America? They might create some surprises like 9/11. But give deep thought on what the result has been. America has even become more dominant and more powerful than ever. Thus, it is best in interest of all in Nepali that Maobadi at this point of time negotiates, enters the main line politics, forms a broader coalition with all political leaders and then instigate peaceful movement to curtail right of king. This way, may be, in future, u can completely root out monarchy from Nepal. All this requires a charismatic leadership, which at all, but, seems unlikely to me. However, I am an optimistic person and will never give up my hope. Contd. Next time. Waiting for your comment.
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