Posted by: suvachintak February 4, 2005
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What's next?
From the looks of the situation, more deterioration. The buffer space for
civilians and humanitarian organisations is being squeezed tighter than
before in Nepal. If the king succeeds in opening space for peace talks with
the Maoists, he will certainly be hailed by many Nepalis. However, such an
occurrance is fanciful. While the Maoists would now negotiate with the king,
which they have been demanding, there is little evidence that talks would
succeed, considering the degree to which the palace and the Maoists are
fighting for conflicting ends. The army seems much more interested in
forcing the Maoists to the negotiating table, than in inviting them. Pyar
Jung Thapa, RNA Chief of Staff, was quoted on 4 February, "If the Royal
Nepal Army succeeds in reducing the military strength of the Maoists, force
them into the national mainstream and help His Majesty's Government to
resolve the Maoist problem, it's name will be written in Nepal's history in
golden letters." He has said also, that without protests in the street, the
army can focus solely on bringing the Maoists to the negotiating table or
into the political mainstream. India has expressed strong doubts about the
army's ability to make significant progress. Given the ability of the army
to force the rebels to the negotiating table to date, it seems clear the
army is focused on a faulty approach.