Posted by: isolated freak January 31, 2005
China becoming super power!!!
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Poonte, Ramro filim housefull bhayera chalcha ni.. 2 hafta matra hoina 25 hafta.. mara-maar! 85 ota post and only 1-2 undesired comments. La will be waiting to read your points, counter points and views. Pisces, We are analyzing the issue from different perspectives. So its natural for you to disagree with me and vice-versa. I am kind of enjoying reading your's and poonte's views on this, and also thinking a lot to defend my views. Its been a good exchange of ideas. "Russia is and will remain next to super power with a major impact on regional and world affairs but will not seek hegemony. Russia should maintain territorial integrity with China (regarding your Siberia issue) in order keep its border inviolate with other former Soviet's states." Let em again disagree here. I see your point, but I have a different take on this, so allow me to express my views. Let me ask you the same question I asked Poonte: Do you believe that a country can be superpower without seeking hegemony? Has there been a peaceful rise of a superpower in the history of International System? As far as my little thinking goes, to be a real TRUE superpower, you have to be a hegemon (maybe I believe too much in realist version of IR). Russia's recent failed interfarance in Ukranian politics and Putin's last year's statement taht Russia will follow the American pre-emptive strikes policy to any place in deems fit (esp. Central Asia) to attack the bases from which the Chechnyans are getting arms and monetary support. Although chances of Russia and China going to war are next to none, but Russia's weapons and an agresive foreign policy will put China in a security dilemma. Even if it joins hands with Russia in economic and other issues, it will always feel presssured by Russia's defense capabilities. It will take China a long time to match its arsenal with that of Russia, so in the meantime, it has no options than to side with the US when it comes to security/defense issues. Of course, China will keep on criticizing the American expansionism and imperialism, like it did during teh Cold War days and which it is doing now and the official rhetoric might even sound like that of Russia, but that doesn't mean you'll have a Russia-China alliance against America. This is how I see it. "If so then why it is not possible for Sino-Russian to cooperate each other to counter check on US? If you have known, US presence is merely to check Russia and China, most obviously Russian and Chinese have also known about that? " Yes, I totally agree. But again given historical issues and the mistrust that developed from the 60s (the Brezhnev doctrine and the USSR invasion of Chechoslovakia) and China's growing trade relations with the USA, and Russia's developmnet of new missiles, will I think makes it more likely of a Sino-American coalition than a Sino-Russian coalition. Also when you have a superpower next door, no matter how good of a relationship you have with it, you are always suspicious of it. Again, this is how I see it. "I do not agree. Russians are still not ready to take over anything or anybody. The picture is broader than what it was during Cold War. Current Russia itself is facing multitude domestic problems along with conflict in Chechnya. It has to keep well alert from anti- Russian (former soviet's) states. Under such circumstances, by no means Russia will ever ignite conflicts around that region. And China do clearly understand this." Please feel free to disagree. Its by disagreeing we learn each other's perspectives. Your perspectives on things are helping me learn a lot, so please do disagree. The problem in Chechnya is the cause that Russia has to be active in the international (regional for now) arena. For the Russians, the Chechnyans are getting the help/support of the middle eastern terrorist groups, who channel the money, arms and even fighters through the Central Asian Republics. So Russia to protect its terretorial integrity has to have an agressive foreign policy..I don't say they don't have domestic problems in Russia, they do. People are angry, the economic developmnet has been slow but if you lookat Putin's victory last year, one of his major agenda was to wipe out the Chechnyan rebels. So to preserve his legitimacy and to regain partially of the lost Soviet Glory, Putin will set aside economic and other agendas for defense and military adventurism in Central Asia. One more Ajerbaijan/Armenia conflict, and a small dispute over Krygyz water ... Russia will definatley intervene. Like America, Russia will not let the Central Asian terrorism networks siding with the Chechnyans keep on attacking the Moscow Subways or killing innocent school kids. Again this is how I see it after analyzing Putin's interviews of last year. "The US knows it cannot stop Russia so it won't make much noise when Japan pumps money to Russia. " One shcool of thought that I have been coming across these days is: The Japanese insistnece on recreating/restructuring their Army is supported by the US. US wants to keep China in a constant security dillema, so that China will not do anything to alter the status quo regarding Taiwan which will let America keep its presence in the Pacific region..and when you are surrounded by 3 hostile powers (Japan, Russia and the US), you are likely to choose one to balance the other two. The Americans want to side with China, for the Chinese it is more sensible to side with the US (even temporarily) to ensure a steady supply of oil.. and China can use that relatively less stressful period for economic and defense development. It will help America to deter Russia because a Sino-US coalition will deter Russia from moving beyond the Central Asian states. Again my views.
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