Posted by: Poonte January 28, 2005
China becoming super power!!!
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On Russia now... The key to Soviet Empire's fall was it's over indulgence on military. While stock piling all sorts of weaponry from conventional tanks and artillery to nuclear rockets, The Soviets clearly neglected the notion of balanced economy, wchich eventually led the system to collapse. Now, there may be some hardliners who wish to have the old Soviet's power back. But if they choose to do so, they should know they are bound to fall again. So far, the educated Russian mass who know better, seemes to understand that the way of the future is having a strong economy, as opposed to a strong military. For this reason, I do not think the Europeans need to fear a rise of militarily strong Russia again; and even they do, they can easily tackle the issue by increasing economic ties with Russia, which they have been doing in a rapid pace for the past few years. Againa, no need for the Europeans to kowtow to US interests because the old-style alliance based on militarism (NATO) is becoming irrelevant by the day. Iran... You agree that Iranians prevailed for now because of clever diplomacy. Diplomacy won over looming military threat. And you asked what if Iranians go ahead and aqcuire nuclear weapons? First of all, I don't think the US and/or covert Israeli military assault on Iran is imminent at all. No matter what harline rhetoric the US uses, the fact remains that: 1. It's military remains extremely thin-stretched and the US can ill afford to venture into another country whiule it's having an extremely difficult time controling one. 2. Iran will obviously do everything possible to keep the Yankees busy in Iraq, because they know that a stable Iraq now means the US troops will be marching towards them next. And, most importantly, 3. US should know that they have been able to hang on to Iraqi situation by a thin thread ONLY because they have been able to fractionalize the Iraqi society. US's ability (as little as it is) to reamin in Iraq comes from a tacit support from the Shiite community. In the end, though, the ultimate loyalty of the Shiites in Iraq goes to clerics in Iran. Should the US make even slightest (and foolish!) mistake of attacking Iran, they are doomed turn Iraqi Shiites against them, greatly jeapardizing their presence in Iraq itself. Also, there should be no question of covert Israeli attack on Iran just because US' hands are tied. Attack by Israel will not only threaten Shiite-US relations in Iraq, but completely ddevastate entire Muslim-US relations. Therefore, I foresee three scenarios for vis-a-vis Iran: a. the Europeans, with strong diplomacy and the threats of economic sanctions, will contain Iran. Or, b. In case the Europeans fail, Iran will go on to acquire nuclear weapons, with the world crying foul out loud, and Iran gloating. c. US or Israel will attack, which will further devastate US stance in the world, particularly in the Middle-East. More reason's for the downfall of the US Empire!
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