Posted by: isolated freak January 27, 2005
China becoming super power!!!
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OK, on hegemony: I personally think that to become a superpower, you have to be a hegemon. You have to have a total control over neighbor's policies. You have to be taller than those around you. And you have to have, besides economic power, an unmatched military power (or less matched military power) and your ideology, your views should be agressively promoted. China is yet to develop its ideological export. South East Asian nations share the same historical/cultural tradition as the Chinese. They believe in Confucianism, there's a large Chinese community and they are increasingly dependant on China for trade. Also they are sympathetic towards China, but they are not under China's sphere of influence. Now they have started to take pride in their Chinese heritage, but because of the political differences and their dependence on America, the suspicion which developed in the 60s between them (China-SE Asia) is still there. The South East Asian nations will on the one hand cherish their close ties with China, on the other hand, become increasinlgly wary of China's growth, because they have to change their own domestic and foreign policies to match, out-match and un-match with that of China. This leads to another round of suspicion without clearing away the first round that developed in the 60s when China embarked on it's most costly adventure of all time, the Cultural Revolution. Also many of the South East Asian nations are rich and theirs relationship with China is a symbiotic relationship. If either party tries to offset the status quo, then it won't be very productive for both. So China will not seek hegemony or do anything on its part unles forced to, to do anything that will offset the present status quo in the region. The governmnets in SE Asia will adapt a policy to be on the good side of both China and America, without either influencing in their domestic and foreign policies. ASEAN might emerge as a EU to counter China, if China embarks on the path of becoming a hegemon. So yoiu might actually see 3 economic superpowers- Japan, China and ASEAN- but not a military-economic superpower, if things remain the way they are now. Defensewise, America will remain on the top followed by Russia and then China. Russia and China will move from the periphery to the core but America will remain at the core of the core. Neither Russia, nor Japan nor China have the ability yet - nor theya re likely to have one anytime soon, unless they all decide to forge an alliance against Ameriacan hegemony, which I don't see very likely in the present scenario - to occupy the core of the core position. mero bhannu yetti ho.
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