Posted by: paramendra January 16, 2005
Of Models And Supermodels
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Scenario 1: The bloody stalemate continues The Maoists keep make sporadic attacks. The king keeps changing Prime Ministers. The parties keep marching against "regression." The common people suffer. Article 127 rules the day. No talks. No parliament. No flexibility on the part of the three players. Scenario 2: Elections for a new parliament It is held in phases like in Kashmir. Or Iraq. Afghanistan. The Maoists are not Al Qaeda, the RNA is not the US army. But the Deuba group might manage it. Say holding it in six stages over a period of three months. Something like that. Deuba Congress 40 seats, Koirala Congress 40 seats, UML 70 seats, others 53 seats. UML forms government with Deuba as Deputy Premier. The Maoists manage to create some havoc, even kill a few candidates. And continue to make their sporadic attacks in the aftermath. They stay on like background radiation. But the king has become constitutional. Elected Prime Minister is center-stage. Scenario 3: MaKuNe as elected prime minister He engineers a major overhauling of the constitution. 2/3rd of the members vote to bring the army under the parliament. The doubled/tripled royal budget under 127 are reigned in. And he manages to bring the Maoists into the mainstream by successfully organizing elections for a Constituent Assembly, by disarming the Maoists first, and making sure the king stays uninvolved at all stages in the process. Scenario 4: Deuba tries but fails The elections are a major flop. Back to scenario 1. Scenario 5: Constituent Assembly Probably will not happen under Article 127. The king is dead-set against the idea. He will likely fire an appointed Prime Minister than allow such a thing.
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