Posted by: Gokul January 15, 2005
Of Models And Supermodels
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In order to decide what could be the possible way out of the present situation, we can streamline our actions by thinking strategically. (1) Elimination by aspects - First, determine the worst outcomes desired and sort them in a descending order. For example, (a) Nepal becoming a maoist state. There is no doubt that very few people would want this choice. It is cruel, outdated and inhumane. Simply unacceptable. (b) Nepal regressing to authoritarian regime - The idea of somebody directing others what to do and what not to do (based on whims and not logic or acceptable rules) is also not acceptable in the 21st century. (c) Democracy as a system (although noisy and turbulent in the beginning) has properties which guarantee that it becomes stable after sometime. The performance of the system's stakeholders functions as a negative feedback to stabilize the system given that the system is autonomous to begin with. Furthermore, the variance (fluctuation) of a system run by "n" people is inversely proportional to the square root of n. The absolute dictatorship is the most risky (n=1). Hence, the more the participants, the less risky the system becomes. This concept is similar to investment in stock markets as investing in a single stock is the riskiest. The safe investment is to create a diversified portfolio. Democracy is such portfolio. Some potential solutions: (1) Simultaneous defanging of maoists and monarchy - a tripartite agreement. The monarchy will be defanged but not dethroned. This alleviates the fear of those who worry about the possible chaos and misrule created by republicanism. The monarchy will remain what it claims to be - just a symbol of national unity. Symbol has some psychological value and monarchy can play that role if it wishes. It will be duly compensated for that job. Some intial valid agenda of maoists (equality of caste, gender, religions, control of liquor and gamblings etc.) should be incorporated. In order to implement this plan, some external force such as UN is necessary. This is the least risky solution and should be acceptable by all. (2) Defanging of maoists first - It is not achievable as there is no trust between the monarchy and democratic party. This lack of trust is justifiable because the monarchy is trying its best to regain its lost power by undermining all democratic values and norms. (3) Defanging of the monarchy first - Since the objective of maoists is not a democracy, there can be /should be no alliance between them and democratic forces. This reality makes this option impossible. (4) Dethroning of the monarchy first - Ironic it may sound, the maoists who purportedly demand republic are the very impediment to its realization. People have reasonable doubts and fear that once the monarchy is dethroned, then Nepal is more likely to become a maoist republic than a democratic republic leading to the worst outcome stated in 1a above. This fear has some basis seeing the growing ruthlessness of maoists and the utter helpness of ordinary people even in the presence of armed forces purported to counteract maoists. THIS IS WHERE THE IDEAL REPUBLICANS FAIL. They have not yet succeeded in showing why this fear is unfounded. While the democratic republic is the ideal and long-run equilibrium state for Nepal, it appears that it needs two-stage approach. This makes sense because when a system is highly dynamic and complex, there are many simultaneities which cannot be handled in a linear and one-shot approach.
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