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 Is the blockade for 1.8% of Nepali population?

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Posted on 12-08-15 12:22 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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Turns out that out of 116 seats for Madhesh, only 11 has issues with the constitution and didn't vote for it. 11 madhesi representatives are protesting the rights of madhesis by doing the blockade, while 105 madhesi representatives are NOT supporting the blockade.

11 out of 116 is 9.4% so 9.4% of madhesi representatives want to determine the fate of the rest of madhesis.

If you look at the bigger picture, madhesis comprise 19.3% of Nepal population. So simple math shows 9.4% of 19.3 = 1.81

Let's get this straight, the whole of Nepal is supposed to bow down to the demands of the minority 1.81%?

Not making any judgement just math!
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Posted on 12-08-15 12:32 PM     [Snapshot: 33]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Bichitra Kumar here's the link http://southasiacheck.org/fact-check/madhesis-comprise-only-19-3-percent-of-nepals-population/
Posted on 12-08-15 12:37 PM     [Snapshot: 34]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Let's say it's 38%, not 19% as @Bichitra_Kumar suggested. That will make it the demands of about 3.6% of the Nepalis. Let's take it even further and say Madhesis represent 50% of the population. We will still be talking about the demands of about only 4.8% of the total population :)
Posted on 12-08-15 12:55 PM     [Snapshot: 86]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Good point. Let's dissect it another way:

20% of Nepalis are of Madheshi origin.
50% of Nepalis are in Terai.

Hence 40% of Nepalis in Terai are of Madhesi origin;
i.e. 60% of Nepalis in Terai are NOT of Madhesi origin.

So, you want to create two Madhesh states, disregarding the fact that majority of people in those states aren't Madhesis?

Posted on 12-08-15 1:06 PM     [Snapshot: 103]     Reply [Subscribe]
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@ Kiddo..... Can you explain what you mean by "madhesi origin?" I am confused by all these words.
Posted on 12-08-15 1:08 PM     [Snapshot: 119]     Reply [Subscribe]
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I meant to say people of Madhesi ethnicity. Those who we refer to as Madhesis. Remember, sixty percent of Terai population do not identify as "madhesi."
Posted on 12-08-15 1:11 PM     [Snapshot: 87]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Are you looking at 10 year old consensus when population was about 1 and half crore?
Do you know what current consensus and when was the last time it was conducted?
Do you really believe what those media person appointed by this government has to say?
If it's 1.81% creating havoc, then what the heck other majority numbers are doing?
Math is good but you are executing it on false data. I'm saying it because in no way just 1.81% could create such a nation wide blockage. It has to be all of them.

NOW, look our geography, in North we've China, — east,west and south it's India and that's the only perfect route for import. We don't have any choice. Have you heard of the phrase 'no way out', if yes we're like in that state.

Amending constitution is the only way I guess if they're stuck with it only. Remember, how over 10 years Maoist crisis happened. Deuba gave birth to it, thought they were minority, was arrogant and totally neglected demand of constituent assembly. Now back in present time, we have Constituent Assembly, formulated a new constitution and entering into another loop of national crisis. This time it's OLI and he's acting just like Deuba back then and this half-dead bastard inept rascal is on the verge of giving birth to another crisis. Sooner or later, they'll get what they want but do we really have to be that arrogant? Do we have to wait another 10,000 people to die?

So, please stop acting like one. No voice should be ignored. It's better to amend the constitution written by group of political hyenas. We don't care if historically that hasn't been done anywhere but in our case, we're creating history by doing things uniquely.
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Posted on 12-08-15 1:15 PM     [Snapshot: 149]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Good points, @ne0 and @Kiddo. If only politics obeyed the rules of Math.
Posted on 12-08-15 1:26 PM     [Snapshot: 158]     Reply [Subscribe]
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@kiddo..... Please explain "Madhesis."

@sixfour.... It is not 1.81% alone creating havoc in Nepal. The whole madhesh based andolan is backed up by India so that updendra yadav, mahanta thakur and else could increase their bargaining power in Nepali politics.
Last edited: 08-Dec-15 01:28 PM

Posted on 12-08-15 1:30 PM     [Snapshot: 156]     Reply [Subscribe]
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I know it is addressed to Ne0, but I will take a stab:

"Are you looking at 10 year old consensus when population was about 1 and half crore?"

Do you have a better data? Unless you have a better data, I'd follow what Ne0 has done. Census (not consensus) always is outdated, since by the time you tally up the numbers, you already have major addition/subtractions. I agree it is not accurate, given the mass exodus of youth our nation has seen but it is close, and closest to what we've gotten.

"I'm saying it because in no way just 1.81% could create such a nation wide blockage. "

Actually it can. Nepal's population is between 25 to 30 million; but you only need hundreds - at most thousands, to bring the country to halt. Reports from Birgunj and other areas of agitation, suggest there were presence of thousands, that's around 0.01% of population. Even if you count those outside the port, it would be well below 2% that Ne0 has suggested.

"Amending constitution is the only way I guess if they're stuck with it only." "No voice should be ignored."

I agree with you whole-heartedly. Madhesh is Nepal so their voice shouldn't be ignored. But then there are other voices too, such as Tharuhat, Chure-Bhawar, Kirats, Limbuwan etc? I want a solution much like anybody else, but I realize the solution is not easy as everybody thinks it is. You solve one problem, another will arise. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't try; first thing first, Netas need to get out and talk to Madhesi people - then to their leaders (only the latter is happenning right now).
Posted on 12-08-15 1:37 PM     [Snapshot: 191]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Deuba gave birth to maoist crisis ? I stopped reading after that .
Posted on 12-08-15 2:08 PM     [Snapshot: 232]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Kiddo thanks for responding to sixfour.
The census data is from 2011 as it shows if you follow the link i pasted above

Nepal was pushed into this ethnic issue by none other than Prachanda. He was the one who started promising "जातिय प्रान्त" when nobody was asking for it. They started the whole ethnic divide thing so they could divide and rule. Now most of the people don't even know what the final result of federation would mean but they are chanting federation because they feel it will help out their own ethnic kind somehow to have their own state.

The first ones to take the bait were the madhesi people and it makes sense too. Because of porous border, it is estimated that there are 30 to 40% Indian people living in madhes region - who do not have Nepali citizenship. It makes sense that these are the people who fall victim to the callous politicians' bait for ethnic divisions partially to secure more favor from India as federal state would have more executive powers to benefit them.

Now, while the madheshi blockade has shown signs of extremism in the form of multiple cases of burning live people, the politicians are let off the hook because most of the country is busy blaming India.

The crux of the whole debacle is the inability of Nepali people to rise against the politicians. There is a web of corruption that is intertwined with every governing body in the country and there is no way to set one free.

Just like the madhesi blockade where a small percentage of country is able to put the whole country on seize by their determination, it is possible to break free of the web of corruption in Nepal. But for that to happen, the determination needs to be shown in the capital just like it's being shown in terai. Will the people of Kathmandu have enough determination to rid the country of the deep rooted virus? Until people of Kathmandu are ready to come out of their cozy homes into the street demanding what is rightfully theirs, nothing will change. The politicians are cozily situated in Kathmandu and agitations in Madhes is not very likely to change their corrupted ways.

Last edited: 08-Dec-15 02:14 PM

Posted on 12-08-15 3:38 PM     [Snapshot: 300]     Reply [Subscribe]
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the first thing, this is not a Madeshi aandolan, this is a aandolan by a small parties in the Madesh, majority of the Madesh population are against it, 

As far as blockade and torching buses, it does not take too many people for the monkey activities and it is backed by Indian side.

Last edited: 08-Dec-15 08:14 PM

Posted on 12-08-15 7:36 PM     [Snapshot: 468]     Reply [Subscribe]
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This majority or minority math is useless. If there referendum carried out whether Nepal should be part of india, i will not be surprised if majority ok for it.

In all the successful so called revolutions in Nepal, most likely about 5% (at most ) people participated, that too the most just for fun (including me).

I think best solution for now is scrap all the constitution process, go for referendum on whether to have federal structure or not. Referendum on whether Nepal should be Hindu state could bring congress supporters, madhesis, and also some communists (religious) together against communists and western countries. Most likely, India and china both will welcome these referendum, as both dont want Nepal be play ground of western countries.

Posted on 12-09-15 7:19 AM     [Snapshot: 666]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Paradox, the issue at hand is very much related to majority / minority math. Many times in history, the people who make the biggest noise have been the minority - even your example of revolution with 5% people participation verifies that is the case.

Referendum may sound like a good option but then again it will depend upon the participation. Even with a 90% voted constitution we are having a big issue. There is no guarantee that the minority will keep quiet about the result of the referendum.

A well placed minority action can adversely affect the entire majority as we have been seeing in Nepal's context currently.

What is important is to have a strong law of land so that people have to abide by democratic norms.
Last edited: 09-Dec-15 07:33 AM

Posted on 12-09-15 9:34 AM     [Snapshot: 743]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Its a pity that the remaining 98% sit on their ass hoping that the inept government will do something about it.
Posted on 12-09-15 9:48 AM     [Snapshot: 750]     Reply [Subscribe]
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The remaining 98% is helpless. If there was anything they could do about it, they would do it.
Posted on 12-09-15 3:07 PM     [Snapshot: 840]     Reply [Subscribe]
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मधेसमा भइरहेको नाकाबन्दि त्येही २ प्रतिशतले गरेको हो भने त्यो दादागिरी मात्र हो अरु केहि होइन | निकम्मा सरकार जो छ दादागिरीहरुको चर्तिकला हेरेर बसिराखेको छ |
Posted on 12-10-15 11:57 AM     [Snapshot: 973]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Marginalized groups should always have a right to protest to be heard but the fact is that there are a lot of marginalized groups in Nepal. For example, the himal people are marginalized and so are the hill people. Even different caste's have been marginalized. It is a good thing that one marginalized group is rising up and making demands. But one thing that needs to be taken into consideration is that when one marginalized group starts making protests, it should not affect other marginalized groups negatively.

In the current protest, the madhes protests are marginalizing the already marginalized groups of Nepal. That does not seem right at all. The blockade is not the way to go and the more the madhes protestors continue to marginalize the rest of the other marginalized Nepalis, then it only creates a hypocritical situation when one marginalized group is only interested in their own demands without giving a damn about other marginalized groups who are now even worse off because of the Madhesi blockade.

The most effective thing to do would be to go and block the government offices or the individual politicians who have not fulfilled their promises. In this case even other marginalized groups would be willing to join them,
Last edited: 10-Dec-15 12:07 PM

Posted on 12-10-15 12:03 PM     [Snapshot: 980]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Agree 100% with neo.

The only way we Nepalese know how to protest is by creating others life difficult for other average Nepalese.
There have been countless nepalbandhs from every political party to prove that. Sadly, this is the only kind of protests the government responds to.
Posted on 12-11-15 10:29 AM     [Snapshot: 1202]     Reply [Subscribe]
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What this guy saying , please read


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