Tectonic Shift in Nepali Politics? Why are Maoists winning?

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I am very surprised by the election results thus far. Like most of the intelligentsia i.e. those who form opinion based on Nepali vernaculars rather than hands-on experience, I had thought that if the election was free and fair Maoists would lose but the running total suggests otherwise . By all accounts, the election was free and fair notwithstanding few violent incidents - given the enormous stake, the violent history of the country and the political culture of S. Asia Nepal's election was exemplary - and if Maoists win we should respect the results.

The question is why are Maoists doing so well unexpectedly. There are couple of theories
(1) Voter intimidation. I would believe voter intimidation to work in the rural areas (Maoists supposedly claim that they can see the ballot papers on binoculars) but NOT in the metropolis like Kathmandu.
(2) If Maoists lose, we are back to square one. I don't buy this argument. If voters had marginalized the Maoists, then they would have lost their political legitimacy. Instead of a political movement it would have been a simple criminal outfit.
(3) Ballot stuffing/bringing voters from other areas. I am sure such things are going on but they are not monopoly of the Maoists. Just yesterday, Congress' Khum B Khadka was accused of doing the same.

If this results hold, then it would mean that Nepalese people have finally decided that the old political establishment was not upto the task of creating a New Nepal. After all the Congress and the UML had their chances to make the difference during the 1990s and they missed their chances because they internal, petty fights. I for sure cannot imagine Girija & Deupa being a PM again.

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