Posted by: paramendra February 2, 2005
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Scenario 1: The stalemate continues. Sporadic violence. Mostly not much. Severe violation of human rights. The military-royal complex strengthens its grips on Kathmandu life. King G's government lasts for a year. Achievements not that different from Deuba's. No talks. No peace. No development. No hope.
Scenario 2: Violent confrontation between the Maoists and the Monarchists. Both attempt to go on the offensive agains the other.
Scenario 3: The second rung leaders of the parties spread across the country manage to organize a counter current of protest. Slowly a call for a republic takes hold. Gains strength as the G government chugs along Deuba style.
Scenario 4: Failed state. Widespread lawlessness.
None of the scenarios look that good. A sad phase for the country.
Constituent Assembly elections after a disarming of the Maoists come as the only meeting ground for the three forces. But King G is nowhere close to that option in his mind. Neither are the parties. So expect deadlock to continue.
Scenario 5: An all-party government minus the Maoists due to intense international pressure and a revived parliament with a one-point mandate to seek peace with the Maoists by keeping all options on the table. This might be King G's second best option, but I doubt he will take it.