Hey U all there! What do u think about The People Republic of China becoming superpower later in this century? What would be the likely changes in the dynamics of world politics and security in such a changed scenario? Could you make any hypothetical assumption of such transformation? What would be the fate of the US glory? Is this transformation would be easily achieved? Can you imagine, US becoming something like The Great Britain now stands (US becoming unconditional supporter/ally)? What would be the overall prosperity of Asians? What would be the role of Nepal? Nepal would be able to formulate its policies as a sovereign and independent country? What would be the challenges and prospects of Nepal by then?

Nut

baba, kati dherai question?
It's not possible to tackle even half of them there.
Anyway, let me asnwer one of them.
If Nepal exists still, (totally serious here) she will reap great benefits in the name of labor, trade, direct access of goods and services, better communication, better agricultural technology, and higher standards of education.
The positive externalities from this would be great adn Nepal would not go backwards even if she wanted to!
This is sorta "utopian" view I hold!

i am drunk today. i will answer it tomorrow when i am sober.

haha president jiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
every posting u said same thing i am drunk today.i will answer it tomorrow when i am sober.......>i was confused for a while.......... am i repeating same posting ??;)

Nut

katti dherai question. Class ko lagi ho ki, just for fun?

Before you ask those questions, you have to look at, and understand the American foreign policy, Russian foreign policy, China's devlopment and growth rate and energy soucres to sustain the growth, the politics of Central and South Asia, Russian stand on Central Asia (especially Krgyzstan).. Japan's changing security and foreign polices, the Taiwanese issue, and India-Pakistan relations. You cannot analyze or answer those questions by isolating China. China is a part of international system, so you have to have broad framework to analyze where/how far China will go in this century.

* so you have to have a broad framework to analyze where/how far China will go in this century.

The questions should be rephrased (in my opinion).

1. Will China be a superpower, if yes, how? If it does become a superpower, how it is going to affect the US, i.e. ,what will be the US position in the new international system? Will nationalism affect the Asian prosperity and growth? Given the impressive rise of both India and China, who should Nepal side with?

Thesis nai lekhdim ki kya ho, gaanthe?

Feri tei dhobini ko chyaatyaa petticoat ko kassam!

Seems to me, it wont take century for China to be superpower. Isolate I admire your knowledge on Sino-US policy. If you remember we had a discussion while back about Sino-Taiwan-US. I got great deal of information from your side..

I still want to hear more from you. I will get back to you sooner.

We dont really have to go that far to know what benifit we(NEpal) can get if China achieves to get superpower. Only if there is enuff peace in Nepal we could just tap every options left by the fast growing economys on the other sides of the border.

The best thing that I personally think is India n China having such huge population density ..business within these two nations is inevitable n the closest way to reach either of the countries is through Nepal..so their interest in building infrastructures in Nepal proves to be beneficial for our economy.
I am damn sure if there was no maoist insurgency in Nepal..we cud have already tasted the benifits but as we know what else can we do than blame the maoist.

>For the rest of questions I still have to go indepth...I guess U guys can do it better.

China becoming a super power and having effect on our beloved country NEPAL is way too far. Before talking about something not in horizon we will only be spending our valuable ( ???? ) time. Lets talk about Maoist trying to be the superpower in our country, challanged by kings interest on one side and political parties ( paralysed powers ) on the other is the real threat to our national security ( and soverignity). All the discussion i have seen on this board tend to suggest utopian models of solution. lets be practical and try to reach a common concensus among saajha.com user about how the maoist insurgency ( some say prblem, which i disregard) can be brought to a peacefull and long lasting end.

please comment

I guess, we are getting much help from China than other countries. Look! China has built many Raj Marga haru in Nepal. Let's appreciate, we have a ringroad, kodari rajmarga, mahendra, and much more. And, China is going to help us to build second ringroad......... America is sucks, just talking about freedom, but doesn't show an example what is all freedom about ............... you heard bush's speech, he said 30 times freedom on his inauguration day,,,,,,,,,,,,, but he doesn't know that more than 10 million people are not getting freedom with in USA. Bush administration just gave fabricate speech to get Spanish vote in order to have their support on election. After winning, people get suffer from Medicare, education, job problems, legal status, and family problem due to the bush's anti-immigration police. Bush can see a lice on somebody, but can't see an elephant up his head. China, doesn't bother anybody. In fact, no one talks against China besides USA. It is why all Neprican need to learn Chinese; before 2025 China will be strong supper power, and Neprican and Spanish will be loaded on cargo ship to shift to China to work in restaurant and other construction jobs. Now everybody know that Bush is suxs, layer, and non-American citizens don't trust what America does....... or says................

I guess, we are getting much help from China than other countries. Look! China has built many Raj Marga haru in Nepal. Let's appreciate, we have a ringroad, kodari rajmarga, mahendra, and much more. And, China is going to help us to build second ringroad......... America is sucks, just talking about freedom, but doesn't show an example what is all freedom about ............... you heard bush's speech, he said 30 times freedom on his inauguration day,,,,,,,,,,,,, but he doesn't know that more than 10 million people are not getting freedom with in USA. Bush administration just gave fabricate speech to get Spanish vote in order to have their support on election. After winning, people get suffer from Medicare, education, job problems, legal status, and family problem due to the bush's anti-immigration police. Bush can see a lice on somebody, but can't see an elephant up his head. China, doesn't bother anybody. In fact, no one talks against China besides USA. It is why all Neprican need to learn Chinese; before 2025 China will be strong supper power, and Neprican and Spanish will be loaded on cargo ship to shift to China to work in restaurant and other construction jobs. Now everybody know that Bush is suxs, layer, and non-American citizens don't trust what America does....... or says................

Nice to hear variety of responses in this topic! I agree that i posted too many questions but you know when i started thinking about china becoming super power, i was swapped away by the idea how this transformation would likely be? As i said it is still hypothetical issue that china would be able to make it!! Some people still do not buy this hypothesis. If I have to tell the truth, I am still skeptic about the idea that china would actually become the superpower of the uni-polar world (equivalent to US now) at first place and also about something US would become something like present Britain. I don't think that it would take the exact course. In the other hand, there are many indications that China would become a superpower, specially, if you look at its ever increasing pace of development (constant increase in GDP) and Military power. Are those two determinants sufficient to make any country a superpower? Those are other issues that can be talked about.

I beg words of apology for asking those many questions (well for your inconvenience)!! Let?s talk specifically about how the transformation would take place and what would be the impact in the geopolitical and socio-economical issues and aspirations of Nepal.


Isolated Freak!! I should admit that I am not a political or Social Science student, I am a Basic and Clinical Science Student but I do have some interest in Socio-political and other stuffs too!! Just to remind you, I started one thread on Cloning that would help you to make a good guess!! Anyway, thanks for paraphrasing (although some of my concepts were deleted or modified) it.

Nut

hypothetical issue= hypothtical idea

No Comment, yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar.

Poonte Bro,

Lekhidim Thesis/dissertation nai lekhidim bro.. will help me a lot with my own dissertation.

OK, here's something from me, since many of you seem serious regarding the issue. (I am writing my dissertation on something very similar to this topic, so let me throw in my ideas, you guys help me out by providing me with constructive criticsim and feedback)

America became a superpower because of it's strategic location. When talking about any superpower or emerging superpower, power, you cannot rule out it's location. America is isolated from the world by the Pacific and the Atlantic and the neighboring countries are small (except for Canada) and weak defensewise. So America didn't have to worry about preserving it's terretorial integrity. For the most part, Americans had no internal and external security threats. It's one of teh raesons the economy did good, and the governmnet could spend money on defense and military/troop deployment elsewhere in the world, whenever it had to.


Russia, another superpower was an ideological and miltary superpower, not a financial superpower. It didn't have a strategic location (it was next to China) and it's ideological isolation from the world, reflected badly on it's economy and a constant "percieved" China threat made it spend more than it's economy could handle on defense. The result it broke down.

So to have a superpower, one has to have a liberal ideology and a strategic location. China is following the liberal path, it might make it an economic superpower in the long run, and given its defense capabilities, it might take even longer for it to emerge as a military superpower. But it won't be that easy. Of course, America and EU will want a stable and a powerful China, as China and the US+Europe have always considered themselves "Strategic Partners". Before this partnership was necessary to contain the Russian adventurism in East Asia, now it is needed to control North Korea.

But the question is: Will China be a superpower? Before you try to answer this, just look at the raesons that will make it difficult for China to become a superpower:

1. It won't be on the best American interests if China becomes a superpower.
2. Japan will be an obstacle in China's rise.
3. Russia will not want a superpower in it's neighborhood.
4. Any rise in China's defense capacity will alter the regional balance of pwoer.. and India will have to increase its defense standing, and Pakistan will be forced to do so, just to maintain the balance of power in South Asia.

and most importantly,

The politics of Central Asia and China's internal security are intertwined. And Central Asia region is probably a volcano waiting to erupt. And CENTRAL ASIA is not under China's sphere of influence.

[If any of you are seriously thinking a carreer in IR, my suggestion is study this yet-to-be studied deeply region, i.e. Central Asia and learn Russian and some Turkish. You'll have no problems gettinga good joba s an analyst or graduate school grants re ke...... just my view.. fokat ma sallah diyeko..:-) ]

Also in economics, trade and development: How will China ensure an uniturrupted supply of the energy sources, mainly Oil needed to sustain the growth? Recently Russia and Japan signed an oil deal, making China look towards Latin America and Africa for its energy sources (the middle eastern sources are already controlled by America and Europe). And both Latin America and Africa are not very stable either. Furthermore, Japan ahs been urging Israel and the European Union to not sell arms to it's neighbor. Also, Japan is actibvelys eeking the US support to recreate it's Army and has already singled out China as a potential security threat.

ASEAN and China recently signed a free-trade agreement, this means, China will be exporting a lot to ASEAN. India, Korea and Japan are likely to follow suit. So you'll see trade rivalary between the major players in the region.

Also, America will keep its PRESENCE in the region, its not withdrawing from the region anytime soon. The Chinese scholars have starte dto show their concerns on this. For them America is encircling China (given that America has established its military bases in Central Asia after Sept. 2001 and it already ahs a heavy presence in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Middle East). In East Asia, America will keep its presence to make sure there's no changes in the status quo vis-a-vis China/Taiwan and to check on Japan's military ambitions.

India feels threatened by a strong China. When Gorge fernandes was justifying India's nuclear tests, he didn't say Pakistan was a threat, he specifically pointed China as a security threat to India and the reason for its nuclear bombs.

The Russians won't make it easy for China to become a superpower eiter. They have now resumed their defense reserach and have bene developing some awesome weapons and "counter-weapons". Plus, it has what China lacks: natural resources and because of it's not-so-remote history, it has a tight grip on the Central Asian states bordering the most strategic of all China's provinces, Xinjiang.

These reasons will certainly make it difficult for China to rise as a superpower, but if things change and China becomes a superpower, I will be happy. Unlike Japan and Russia, China doesn't believe in imperialism and expnasionism because Chinese culture is not a warrior culture like that of Japan and Russia. Even in the Imperial times, when China was strong defensewise and culturewise and was a hegemon in the region, it did not seek terretoirial gain because of the age old Chinese tradition of "hao han bu dang bing"- A good Han (Chinese) does not fight. This emphasis on not-fighting and instead on learning was, in the later days was seen as the most crucial factor in developing/maintaining China's high civilization/culture. Things haven't changed in the post imperial China either. The only times China fought outside its borders in the alst 50 years were: Korean War and in Vietnam after it invaded Cambodia. Both can be justified as wars not for terretorial gains or for control but for prserving its own terretorial integrity. Therefore, I have no hesitation to say that China as a superpower will be much safer to Asia and the world, than to have Japan or India as a superpower.

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Russia, another superpower was an ideological and miltary superpower, not a financial superpower. It didn't have a strategic location (it was next to China) and it's ideological isolation from the world except for East Europe

hetterikka.. j payo tyahi bold bhayecha.. p[lease disregard my earlier post.. read this one instead..

Poonte Bro,

Lekhidim Thesis/dissertation nai lekhidim bro.. will help me a lot with my own dissertation.

OK, here's something from me, since many of you seem serious regarding the issue. (I am writing my dissertation on something very similar to this topic, so let me throw in my ideas, you guys help me out by providing me with constructive criticsim and feedback)

America became a superpower because of it's strategic location. When talking about any superpower or emerging superpower, you cannot rule out it's location. America is isolated from the world by the Pacific and the Atlantic and the neighboring countries are small (except for Canada) and weak defensewise. So America didn't have to worry about preserving it's terretorial integrity. For the most part, Americans had no internal and external security threats. It's one of teh raesons the economy did good, and the governmnet could spend money on defense and military/troop deployment elsewhere in the world, whenever it had to.


Russia, another superpower was an ideological and miltary superpower, not a financial superpower. It didn't have a strategic location (it was next to China) and it's ideological isolation from the world except for East Europe, reflected badly on it's economy and a constant "percieved" China threat made it spend more than it's economy could handle on defense. The result: it broke down.

So to have a superpower, one has to have a liberal ideology and a strategic location. China is following the liberal path, it might make it an economic superpower in the long run, and given its defense capabilities, it might take even longer for it to emerge as a military superpower. But it won't be that easy. Of course, America and EU will want a stable and a powerful China, as China and the US+Europe have always considered themselves "Strategic Partners". Before this partnership was necessary to contain the Russian adventurism in East Asia, now it is needed to control North Korea.

But the question is: Will China be a superpower? Before you try to answer this, just look at the raesons that will make it difficult for China to become a superpower:

1. It won't be on the best American interests if China becomes a superpower.
2. Japan will be an obstacle in China's rise.
3. Russia will not want a superpower in it's neighborhood.
4. Any rise in China's defense capacity will alter the regional balance of pwoer.. and India will have to increase its defense standing, and Pakistan will be forced to do so, just to maintain the balance of power in South Asia.

and most importantly,

The politics of Central Asia and China's internal security are intertwined. And Central Asia region is probably a volcano waiting to erupt. And CENTRAL ASIA is not under China's sphere of influence.

[If any of you are seriously thinking a carreer in IR, my suggestion is study this yet-to-be deeply studied region, i.e. Central Asia and learn Russian and some Turkish. You'll have no problems gettinga good joba s an analyst or graduate school grants re ke...... just my view.. fokat ma sallah diyeko..:-) ]

Also in economics, trade and development: How will China ensure an uniturrupted supply of the energy sources, mainly Oil needed to sustain the growth? Recently Russia and Japan signed an oil deal, making China look towards Latin America and Africa for its energy sources (the middle eastern sources are already controlled by America and Europe). And both Latin America and Africa are not very stable either. Furthermore, Japan ahs been urging Israel and the European Union to not sell arms to it's neighbor. Also, Japan is actibvelys eeking the US support to recreate it's Army and has already singled out China as a potential security threat.

ASEAN and China recently signed a free-trade agreement, this means, China will be exporting a lot to ASEAN. India, Korea and Japan are likely to follow suit. So you'll see trade rivalary between the major players in the region.

Also, America will keep its PRESENCE in the region, its not withdrawing from the region anytime soon. The Chinese scholars have starte dto show their concerns on this. For them America is encircling China (given that America has established its military bases in Central Asia after Sept. 2001 and it already ahs a heavy presence in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Middle East). In East Asia, America will keep its presence to make sure there's no changes in the status quo vis-a-vis China/Taiwan and to check on Japan's military ambitions.

India feels threatened by a strong China. When Gorge fernandes was justifying India's nuclear tests, he didn't say Pakistan was a threat, he specifically pointed China as a security threat to India and the reason for its nuclear bombs.

The Russians won't make it easy for China to become a superpower eiter. They have now resumed their defense reserach and have bene developing some awesome weapons and "counter-weapons". Plus, it has what China lacks: natural resources and because of it's not-so-remote history, it has a tight grip on the Central Asian states bordering the most strategic of all China's provinces, Xinjiang.

These reasons will certainly make it difficult for China to rise as a superpower, but if things change and China becomes a superpower, I will be happy. Unlike Japan and Russia, China doesn't believe in imperialism and expnasionism because Chinese culture is not a warrior culture like that of Japan and Russia. Even in the Imperial times, when China was strong defensewise and culturewise and was a hegemon in the region, it did not seek terretoirial gain because of the age old Chinese tradition of "hao han bu dang bing"- A good Han (Chinese) does not fight. This emphasis on not-fighting and instead on learning was, in the later days was seen as the most crucial factor in developing/maintaining China's high civilization/culture. Things haven't changed in the post imperial China either. The only times China fought outside its borders in the alst 50 years were: Korean War and in Vietnam after it invaded Cambodia. Both can be justified as wars not for terretorial gains or for control but for prserving its own terretorial integrity. Therefore, I have no hesitation to say that China as a superpower will be much safer to Asia and the world, than to have Japan or India as a superpower.

Nuts,

Oh.. OK, i thought you were a political sicence student. My mistake. Thanks for your clarification. I am happy that you are exploring questions outisde of your choosen field.